050
FXUS64 KAMA 111743
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH.
- WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE CLEAR PRESENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY
CAUSING THE TIGHT PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IN TURN IS
WHAT IS DRIVING THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THESE WINDS ARE STRONGEST RIGHT NOW BUT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY DURING THIS TIME WHICH IS DRIVING IN
COOLER AIR LEADING TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. COME THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL END
LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS SEE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP LEAVES THE PANHANDLES WITH BROADLY NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS MEANS THAT THE
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME BREEZY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN WARMER AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN GO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WITH 70S FOR HIGHS BEING COMMON. THE DRY AND WINDY
WEATHER IS CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WHOLE
OF THE PANHANDLES FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
OF THURSDAY.
THROUGH BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE AT
ALL LEVELS WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REMAINING BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW BLOWING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES PREVENTING MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING AND KEEPING
IT DRY. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOST LIKELY SLACKEN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK LEADING TO OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS.
THIS LESSEN THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE THIS TIME BUT DOESN'T
FULLY ELIMINATE THEM. COME SUNDAY THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT A
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO BE TO BE DRY WITH ITS
IMPACTS INSTEAD CENTERED AROUND GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. SO THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRING COOLER
WEATHER BUT ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR NEXT WORK WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SOLE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM ANY DUST
LOFTED BY THE WINDS WHICH CAN LEAD TO HAZY SKIES. THE HAZE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THUS IT IS NOT REFLECTED
AS A WEATHER TYPE IN THE TAFS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WIND DIRECTION
REMAINING NORTHERLY. THESE WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
DIRECTION CLOCKWISE TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. FURTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ001>005.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ001>020-
317.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ006>020-
317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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