934
FXUS64 KAMA 120552
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH.
- WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE CLEAR PRESENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, LATEST STATION OBSERVATIONS HAVE SEEN WIND
WEAKEN IN CORRELATION WITH THE FULL EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JETS. TO OUR WEST MODEL HAS SEEN A NEW
RIDGE BUILDING THAT WILL LIKELY PLACE THE PANHANDLES UNDER A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, THIS
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO SEE THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN HEAT UP AND DRY
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THURSDAY, THIS WARM UP WILL BEGIN
TO BE FELT AS TEMPERATURE LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S THAT AFTERNOON. THIS WARM AND DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER, DOES NOT
RESULT IN A QUITE DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES. PRESENTLY, MODELS HAVE
CONTINUE TO SEE A NEW LEE-SIDE LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL SET THE
PANHANDLES UP FOR ANOTHER CLASSIC DOWN-SLOPING WIND EVENT. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SET UP, THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
LOOK TO HAVE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD REACH SPEEDS OF
25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS 40 MPH IN PLACES. THESE WINDS
COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. OF COURSE WITH SUCH GUSTY AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOKING TO BE PRESENT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. AS IT STANDS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS MORE ABOUT THE
TIMING RATHER THAN CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LATEST CAMS HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS LEE-SIDE LOW
LOOKS TO EJECT AN PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A MUCH SHORTER THAN EXPECTED WINDOW OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GIVEN THAT RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP UNTIL THAT
TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE COMBINED PANHANDLES STARTING NOON AND LASTING UNTIL 8 PM
THAT EVENING.
AS FOR FRIDAY, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGE. AFTERNOON HIGH
WILL LOOK TO KEEP RISING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL ACTUALLY LOOK
TO DROP OFF AS WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE FOR THE DAY
THANKS TO SURFACE LOW HOLDING OVER THE AREA. ELEVATED CONCERNS MAY
STILL BE PRESENT IN OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST, BUT CURRENT THESE
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE FUEL AND RH DRIVE SHOULD THEY OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MILD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, AND WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN
CO, AND IT'S FAIRLY BROAD WITH A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AS WINDS
ALOFT WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG. IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY,
BUT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
CHECK.
SUNDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A PRETTY POTENT JET BEHIND IT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AS WELL, AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE CERTAINLY A CONCERN FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
CURRENTLY SET FOR THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, BUT THE HIGHS MAY OCCUR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OCCUR BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE BELOW 40.
WINDS WILL START TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH TEENS
TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE A COOL AND DRY DAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW
KICKS IN, BUT THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN COLD AIR SYSTEM WILL STILL
LINGER AND THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND BRINGS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S, WITH 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO DRY, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
DOESN'T LOOK TOO BREEZY, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK MINIMAL.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY KEEP TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, LOOK FOR THEM TO PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS NEARING 40 KTS AT TIMES. BLOWING DUST
MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY DURING THESE THESE BREEZY TO GUSTY PERIOD.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS IS MOSTLY
FOCUSED TO KDHT AND KGUY WITH THOSE IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE
PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11
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