913
FXUS64 KAMA 280533
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES.
- NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND HEAT ILLNESSES MAY RESULT FOR THOSE THAT SPEND A
LOT OF TIME OUTSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLES,
THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR
LATE MARCH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A
LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FORM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY
MID DAY AND WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND GUSTS COULD BE UPWARDS OF 40
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE
VERY LOW, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARISE ONCE AGAIN
GIVEN HOW DRY THE GRASSES ARE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALL NIGHT AS THE
LEESIDE LOW TREKS EAST ACROSS KANSAS.
STRONG WAA RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS H850 TEMPERATURES
RISE UP INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BREAKING RECORD HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA WIDE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
QUITE LOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WARMER AIR MASS SITS OVER THE REGION.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ONCE
AGAIN. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS RETURNING ON MONDAY. MODELS RIGHT NOW ARE
KEEPING THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IS LEADING TO
LESSER WINDS OVER THE CWA. WE CAN HOPE THIS PANS OUT, BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES IN OKLAHOMA
RIGHT NOW. IN EITHER CASE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY ARISE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY, JUST HOW BAD IT COULD BE DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG
THE WINDS MAY BECOME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
JUST WHEN VARIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MID
TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS? THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
PATTERN MAY CHANGE JUST ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND LIFT PROVIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO
RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER, BUT STILL WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
LATE NEXT WEEK. NOTHING IS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE IS SOME
HOPE POTENTIALLY ON THE HORIZON TO START GETTING SOME MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 KTS AT KDHT AND KGUY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT GUSTS WILL DECREASE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF
CYCLE BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARISE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EVEN
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DECREASE TO 15-20
PERCENT, THE VERY DRY GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO POTENTIAL
FIRE STARTS. THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG THREAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 3 TO
4 RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001>005.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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