261
FXUS64 KAMA 281831
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
131 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES FIRE PREVENTION NEEDS TO BE PRACTICED.
- RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND HEAT ILLNESSES MAY RESULT FOR THOSE OUTSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE PANHANDLES ARE ON
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS POSITION IS IMPORTANT AS IT ALLOWS THE PANHANDLES TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE WEST/EAST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
FLOW IS CAUSING A LEE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PANHANDLES
WHICH IN TURN IS CAUSING A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST ALSO DRIVES THE GRADIENT OF WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS MEANS THAT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL SEE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES SEE WEAKER WIND
GUSTS. THE MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S MPH RANGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS WHICH IS CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SEE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AS
SUCH IT IS RECOMMENDED TO PRACTICE FIRE PREVENTION TO STOP AND
WILDFIRES FROM STARTING. GOING INTO THE EVENING THE LEE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS CEASING ON THE GUSTS. THE
WEAKENING OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE REGION IS CAUSING
HEATING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY
THIS IS CAUSING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST
LEAVING THE PANHANDLES ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAKE THE INFLUENCE OF ANY LEE TROUGH LESS FOR
THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO GENERALLY WEAKER WINDS FOR SUNDAY. STILL
IT WILL BE DRIER ON SUNDAY WHICH IS CAUSING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE HEATING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
CAUSING FAR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
PANHANDLES WIDE. SUCH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD
LEVELS. SUCH HEAT CAN LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESS SO BE PREPARED AND
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS WHILE OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR THE FLAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN
DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
INFLUENCE IT IS HAVING WILL BE WANING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE EAST. STILL THE HEATING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHICH IS RECORD LEVELS.
SUCH HEAT CAN CAUSE HEAT ILLNESS FOR ANY WHO ARE OUTDOOR AND NOT
ACCLIMATED TO SUMMER LEVELS OF HEAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GUSTY AND SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL TERMINALS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND WEAKEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CEASE TO
GUSTS. THIS WILL SET UP SPEED WITH DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE LATER MORNING AS THE
WINDS WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY WEAK WINDS AND
SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AGAIN AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
ALLOWING FOR TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THIS MEANS THAT THE
ELEVATED TO EVEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY.
COME TUESDAY THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM TO
PUSH OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE AND PASS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A
DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH
THE CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE IS VERY LOW.
WEDNESDAY A FAST MOVING SMALLER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE
CHANCE OF PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY HAS A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY TO DRAW UP SOME GULF
MOISTURE IN THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS LEADING TO A LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRAJECTORY MAKE IT HARD TO SAY
EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE PANHANDLES WILL RECEIVE DURING ITS
PASSAGE. IN FACT IF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ITS TRAJECTORY EITHER NORTH
OR SOUTH IT WOULD PREVENT THE MOISTURE FROM PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLES LEAVING US DRY. SO THIS IS A SYSTEM WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON AS IT HAS BEEN TOO LONG SINCE RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE
PANHANDLES.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN BUT
OVERALL FAVORS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THERE ARE
CURRENTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR FURTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING
MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 818 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH OF 15 TO
20%. THE WINDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
AND BECOME WEAKER IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THE SAME
TREND APPLIES TO MOISTURE WHERE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ARE DRIER
AND THE SOUTHER WETTER. THIS MEANS THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES.
WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>005.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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