665
FXUS64 KAMA 291125
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY MAY LEAD TO
HEAT ILLNESSES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTSIDE.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. TO START THE DAY, BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE AT SUNRISE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
A WARM START TO THE DAY WILL AID IN LEADING TO TEMPERATURES RISING
TO RECORD BREAKING LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA TODAY
WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S CELSIUS DURING PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS MAY
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING BUT WILL DECREASE GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY AND LESSER MOISTURE TO THE WEST. GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE
MAY OCCUR AND WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ON MONDAY
EVENING, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ATTEMPTING TO FORM
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE NEWEST CAMS AND A FEW OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS SOLUTION, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD
MOISTURE DEPTH, ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL VERY LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN ANY STRENGTH. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DCAPE MAY BE
PRESENT TO LEAD TO A LOW END SEVERE STORM THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
ANY STORMS FORMING RIGHT NOW IS VERY, VERY LOW. WILL WAIT TO SEE
MORE MODEL TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AT SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RACING SOUTH
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE PANHANDLES COME TUESDAY MORNING, BUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING IT MAY BE ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS FEATURE GETS ON TUESDAY WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE TYPE
OF WEATHER WE MAY SEE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S TO UPPER 60S WHEREAS
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH MAY REACH THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. SPEAKING OF
MOISTURE, MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MORE
CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT
MOVE ALL THE WAY THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING, A SHOWER OR STORM
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY, CONTRIBUTING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS COOLER DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MAY LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THAT
OCCURRING DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IF ANY
SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, WITH MOST AREAS BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY BUT A TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS SHOULD KEEP HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, SO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A
POTENTIAL DRYLINE SEVERE STORM SETUP ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE ARE MANY
FACTORS IN PLAY THAT LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN A PREFERENCE OF ONE
SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS POINT. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROPELLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD FOR THE DAY WITH ONLY SOME SCATTER TO
FEW CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
BUT KDHT AND KGUY WILL LIKELY SEE THEM BECOME A BIT MORE VARIABLE
IN THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD FOR THE PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11
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