042
FXUS64 KAMA 292332
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY MAY LEAD TO
HEAT ILLNESSES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTSIDE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREAD.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. RECORD
BREAKING HIGHS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER
LLJ WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BREEZY ALL
NIGHT. THE WELL MIXED LOWER LEVELS WILL PROMOTE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE ON
MONDAY.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A FLATTENED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TODAY THE PANHANDLES
ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
HAS LEAD TO A MORE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO
A WEAKER LEE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
WITHOUT A A STRONGER LEE TROUGH THE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK TO BREEZY. THESE WEAKER WINDS WILL LOWER THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT NOT ELIMINATE THEM. FOR THE PANHANDLES REMAINS
VERY DRY WHICH IN OF ITSELF IS CAUSING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HEATING FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HIGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO
JUMP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT
RECORD HIGH LEVELS AND CAN POSE A THREAT FOR HEAT ILLNESS FOR ALL
WHO ARE OUTDOORS AND NOT ACCLIMATED TO SUMMER HEAT.
MONDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
CENTER OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE INFLUENCE OF THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTH TO WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR DAYTIME HOURS OF
MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE COUPLED WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS
WHICH IS CAUSING THE RISK FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES. THESE WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER DOWNSLOPING AIR ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL MAKE UP FOR THE WAINING HEAT FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. SUCH
TEMPERATURES ARE AT RECORD LEVELS AND POSE A HEAT ILLNESS THREAT TO
ALL WHO ARE OUTDOORS AND NOT ACCLIMATED TO SUMMER LEVEL OF HEAT.
SOME LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. GOING INTO
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGH
MOISTURE TO IT EAST ALONG WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. GOOD
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT LENGTH WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO CONCENTRATE
LEADING TO A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. IF ANY STORM
MANAGES TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE HIGH
BASED WITH A DEEP DRY SUB CLOUD BASE LAYER. THIS MEANS THAT THE D
CAPE WILL BE HIGH ALLOWING FOR ANY SUCH STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS EVEN IF SUCH AN EVENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. EVEN IF WE
DO MANAGE TO FORM ANY STORMS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WE JUST DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TUESDAY HAS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MAINLY THROUGH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH STILL HAS SOME
UNCERTAINTIES BUT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE IMPORTANT MOSTLY IN REGARD TO HEAT
AS A SLOWER FRONT WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE PANHANDLES TO REMAIN HOT.
CONVERSELY A FASTER FRONT WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PANHANDLES. AN EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN FEATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
QUANTITY OF MOISTURE IT BRINGS TO THE PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY THE
AMOUNT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOW LEADING A A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR ANY
RAINFALL. STILL WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES. EVEN IF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
DOESN'T PRODUCE RAINFALL IT WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. STILL ALL THE
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES
FOR LATER TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE COOLER AIR FROM THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCLUDING THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY TO DRAW
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. THIS MAKES IT SUCH THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LOW BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
A FEW SPOTS MIGHT GET HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A THUNDERSTORM MATERIALIZES.
THURSDAY IT IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN WEATHER SYSTEM IN
TURN MAKES IT MOST LIKELY FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND TO SET UP BRINGING IN
WARMER AND DRIER AIR. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
BUT CAN ALSO BRING BACK FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FRIDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND START TO EJECT
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IN DOING SO THIS SYSTEM IS NOW HINTING AT
SETTING UP A DRY LINE WEATHER EVENT. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE MOIST SECTOR EAST OF THE DRY LINE. AS
TO WHERE THE DRY LINE WOULD SET UP IT SEEMS THAT THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES IS CURRENTLY MOST FAVORABLE. HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRY
LINE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WITH FUTURE FORECAST. THESE KIND OF DRY LINE
SETUP ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER THE UNCERTAINTY IS CURRENTLY WAY TO SAY THAT THE PANHANDLES
WOULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS IS MOST CONCERNING FOR WEST OF THE DRY LINE WHERE
THE WINDY AND DRY AIR IS CAUSE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING AT KAMA
DUE TO WINDS AT 1-2K FT OF 40-50 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05
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