406
FXUS64 KAMA 300531
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1231 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO HEAT ILLNESSES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTSIDE.
- VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREAD.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON TODAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY
FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER VERY WARM START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS BREEZY LOW
LEVEL WINDS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
TO START THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID
50S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE PANHANDLES STILL UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, STRONG WAA WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING HIGHS IN THE 90S. CLOUD
COVER MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO DOWN THROUGH THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, IN PARTICULAR THE EAST. THE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND VERY
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO A VERY MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE. DECENT LOW LEVEL TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED, LIGHT
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY OF THE CELLS ARE ABLE
TO TAP INTO SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED IF
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO FORM. HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE LOW END POPS
(10-15 PERCENT) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO PANNING OUT.
ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS GRASP ON THE REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY,
ONLY HAVING THE FRONT APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A 15 DEGREE OR SO SPREAD IN
THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST MAY ARISE
WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT, ONE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND THE OTHER ALONG ANOTHER WEAK DRYLINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND OUT OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT
MAY START TO MIX OUT AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER
AIR TO FILTER IN LEADING TO LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR MASS,
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE HIGHER OUT AHEAD OF A H500 TROUGH SO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
BIT OVERDONE IF CLOUD COVER PREVENTS MORE HEATING THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CENTRAL
AND WEST HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO THE EVENING WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION. NBM POPS APPEAR WAY TOO HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA SO HAVE
LOWERED CHANCES FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
FURTHER EAST, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BEFORE
MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF EVERYTHING WERE TO PAN
OUT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES
ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THIS SCENARIO. FRIDAY
IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A COLD FRONT RACES SOUTH AND A DRYLINE
SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW, THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE OK/TX STATE LINE OR FURTHER
EAST, SO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, BUT SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO ON SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A COOLER AIR
MASS. THE COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS AT KAMA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN OVER THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ARE ONLY EXPECTED BE AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER EAST, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE MAIN CAVEAT IS THAT
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IS ALSO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY ONLY DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS, BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. RED FLAG THREAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 1-3 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001>010.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ011>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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