950
FXUS64 KAMA 301845 CCA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
145 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREAD.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY
FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S RECORD HEAT, SLIGHT CHANGES WILL BE COMING
WITH A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BRINGING THE
FRONT IN SLOWER AND LESS POTENT, ULTIMATELY KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY BE THE EXCEPTION WITH SOME LOWER 90S.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THERE IS S LIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF OF A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING. DRY LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE CAUSING ANY RAIN TO EVAPORATE LEADING TO THE WIND
THREAT WHILE MINIMIZING THE CHANCES FOR ANYONE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE TO EVEN MEASURE RAIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW THERE WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING
A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
ONCE AGAIN. MODELS AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE A TIGHT ENOUGH TD
GRADIENT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TRUE DRYLINE AT THIS TIME. GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AROUND 03Z WED, THE NAM DOES PROVIDE A TRUE
DRYLINE WITH A TRIPLE POINT ALMOST IN THE CENTER OF THE CWA. THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OUT OF THE FA WITH MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES BEING COMPLETELY DRY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WED. TO INCLUDE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE POST
FRONTAL FOR A BIT ON WED WITH WINDS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND H85 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK DESPITE THE REBOUNDING H85 TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES EARLY IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EASTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES DO EXIST LATER IN THE DAY, BUT WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BEST DYNAMICS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
TOO QUICKLY, EVEN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES MAY GET DRY
SLOTTED. WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION OF THE POSITION OF A
DRYLINE ON THE DAY OF FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL. WED
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY HAVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION, WHILE THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
HAVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH THE EXACT CUTOFF BETWEEN
THE TWO WEATHER TYPES BEING UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STAYING PRESENT.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HEAT HOORAH BEFORE THE RIDGE
COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
HEADS INTO THE AREA. BUT FIRST, A SIMILAR SPRING TIME SET UP WITH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES POSSIBLY UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE FURTHER EAST IN OK AS
THE FA MAY VERY WELL GET DRYSLOTTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE
A BIT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. LOWS ON
SUNDAY MORNING MAY EVEN DROP TO AROUND 32 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES. WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH NORTH
WINDS POST FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHERLY FOR KDHT AND KGUY LATER IN THE PERIOD
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ARE ONLY EXPECTED BE AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER EAST, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE MAIN CAVEAT IS THAT
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IS ALSO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY ONLY DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS, BUT THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. RED FLAG THREAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 1-3 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>010-014-
015-020.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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