459
FXUS64 KAMA 302334
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREAD.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY
FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS WHEELER, COLLINGSWORTH, AND DONLEY COUNTIES. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE NOW LOCATED ACROSS DONLEY AND COLLINGSWORTH
COUNTIES AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 60-70 MPH AND COULD ALSO BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES. LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 PM DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE ONGOING STORMS.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S RECORD HEAT, SLIGHT CHANGES WILL BE COMING
WITH A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BRINGING THE
FRONT IN SLOWER AND LESS POTENT, ULTIMATELY KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY BE THE EXCEPTION WITH SOME LOWER 90S.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THERE IS S LIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF OF A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING. DRY LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE CAUSING ANY RAIN TO EVAPORATE LEADING TO THE WIND
THREAT WHILE MINIMIZING THE CHANCES FOR ANYONE IN THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE TO EVEN MEASURE RAIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW THERE WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING
A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
ONCE AGAIN. MODELS AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE A TIGHT ENOUGH TD
GRADIENT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TRUE DRYLINE AT THIS TIME. GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AROUND 03Z WED, THE NAM DOES PROVIDE A TRUE
DRYLINE WITH A TRIPLE POINT ALMOST IN THE CENTER OF THE CWA. THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR A SEVERE POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OUT OF THE FA WITH MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES BEING COMPLETELY DRY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WED. TO INCLUDE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE POST
FRONTAL FOR A BIT ON WED WITH WINDS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND H85 TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK DESPITE THE REBOUNDING H85 TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES EARLY IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EASTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES DO EXIST LATER IN THE DAY, BUT WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BEST DYNAMICS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
TOO QUICKLY, EVEN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES MAY GET DRY
SLOTTED. WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION OF THE POSITION OF A
DRYLINE ON THE DAY OF FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE CHANCES AS WELL. WED
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY HAVE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION, WHILE THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
HAVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH THE EXACT CUTOFF BETWEEN
THE TWO WEATHER TYPES BEING UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S WITH
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STAYING PRESENT.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE HEAT HOORAH BEFORE THE RIDGE
COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME. FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
HEADS INTO THE AREA. BUT FIRST, A SIMILAR SPRING TIME SET UP WITH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES POSSIBLY UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN. THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE FURTHER EAST IN OK AS
THE FA MAY VERY WELL GET DRYSLOTTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE
A BIT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. LOWS ON
SUNDAY MORNING MAY EVEN DROP TO AROUND 32 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES. WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH NORTH
WINDS POST FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL STAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20-25 KTS, PARTICULARLY AT KAMA. WINDS BEYOND 12-15Z ARE TRICKY,
AS THEY WILL DEPEND UPON ON FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT GETS DURING THE
DAY. RIGHT NOW, KGUY HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND KDHT MAY ALSO END UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 20-30
KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>010-014-
015-020.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...05
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