412
FXUS64 KAMA 310535
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SEVERE STORMS BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON BOTH OF THESE
DAYS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND FIRES MAY BE ABLE TO SPREAD
QUICKLY IF ANY START DURING THE WINDIER DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
ONCE AGAIN, A LOW LEVEL JET WITH H850 WINDS UPWARDS OF 40-55 KTS
SETS UP OVER THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND TEMPERATURES GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE WARM. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST MAY EVEN ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND SHOULD REACH THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID MORNING. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
GETS TODAY VARIES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION IN THIS CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH RESULTS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS. WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AS WELL
AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST, STORMS MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MORE HOSTILE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM COMPARED TO TODAY, SO THE ANTICIPATION IS THAT IF STORMS FORM
ACROSS THE EAST, THEY COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD END AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.
A LEADING WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER THIS WEEK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST, THIS FEATURE IS TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH DRY SLOTS MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY STILL FORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST BEFORE DRY
SLOTTING REALLY KICKS IN AFTER SUNSET. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT A STORM GETTING STRONG TO SEVERE BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA. GIVEN NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY
EVENING, RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END VERY QUICKLY BUT THAT IS NOT
WELL REPRESENTED IN THE NBM POPS. HAVE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST GIVEN THIS VERY
LIKELY SCENARIO. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN, AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES,
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS, THEY COULD BE QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 45 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT THEY COULD STILL REMAIN BREEZY AS ANOTHER LLJ SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT PROVIDED THE SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA, LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER
SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY AND WAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST ONCE
AGAIN LEADING TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.
FOR FRIDAY, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE ROCKIES. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
TROUGH, THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO A TYPICAL SPRING
SEVERE STORM DAY EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND FIRE WEATHER WEST OF THE
DRYLINE SCENARIO FOR THE PANHANDLES. ON TOP OF ALL THAT, THE TROUGH
WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH THAT ALL BEING SAID, THERE ARE A LOT
OF FACTORS IN PLAY ON FRIDAY AND DETAILS OF EACH WILL CHANGE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR ON THE BREEZIER DAYS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30 KTS,
MAINLY AT KAMA. WINDS WILL START TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AT KGUY
AFTER SUNRISE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KDHT AND KAMA WILL EVENTUALLY
TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT CONFIDENCE WHEN THAT OCCURS IS A BIT
LOWER RIGHT NOW DUE TO VARIANCE IN THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE REGION.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page