413
FXUS64 KAMA 011122
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS MAY GUST
UP TO 45 MPH IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. BE PREPARED FOR ANY NEW
FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SPREAD OF ANY NEW FIRES.
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
-THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA. SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NM TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES AND
DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL THE
PANHANDLES. THAT WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER, BUT ALSO WITH
THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE AREA, WE DO EXPECT SOME INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS UP TO 700-600MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, TO
POSSIBLE VIRGA WIND BURSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PANHANDLES. HIGHER BASED SHOWERS FURTHER WEST AS THE LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENTS FROM ANOTHER LOW IN
SOUTHEAST CO WILL HELP DRIVE STRONGER WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES, AND GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER 45 MPH GIVEN THE
STRONG 700MB JET OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING.
FURTHER EAST, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. IT'S VERY
POSSIBLE THAT ALL SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP ONLY BECOME A WIND
THREAT, AND MAYBE SOME DRY LIGHTNING, BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO MORE
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS HAVE THINGS VERY CLOSE TO REALLY RAMPING UP
THE SEVERE THREAT AS THEY APPROACH THAT TX/OK BORDER. BUT IF THE
DRYLINE SETUP STARTS OFF FURTHER WEST THEN THAT SEVERE THREAT COULD
START EARLIER. IF A STORM CAN GET GOING, GIVEN THE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND SHEAR, WE CAN'T RULE OUT ALL HAZARDS. OVERALL THE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO IS VERY LOW (~2%), BUT THAT'S MAINLY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (~15%) THAT WE EVEN GET A STORM DEVELOP
THAT WILL BE IN THE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT LONG ENOUGH. WE EXPECT
PLENTY OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN HIGH BASE ONES THAT CAN
PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING, IT'S JUST IF THE SEVERE THREAT CAN RAMP UP
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF INTO OK, IS THE MAIN QUESTIONS. THE PRIMARY
TIME FOR THE SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE EAST CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE IN THE 4-7PM TIME FRAME. BUT SHOWERS COULD START AS EARLY AS THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL STILL STAY UP A BIT
OUT OF THE WEST, IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS STARTING TO GET BACK IN THE
MID 80S. THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR A
GOOD CHUNK, IF NOT ALL THE PANHANDLES. THE MAIN CONCERN IS JUST
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE
LOW ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT AND THAT WILL LEAD
TO WARM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
COLD FRONT TO START TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT LOOKS TO
STALL IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE MAY RETREAT JUST ENOUGH
TO GET SOME STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. WITH THE STALLED FRONT, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES IN THE 70S ON
FRIDAY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S. NORTH WINDS ON
SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IS
EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR MONDAY, AND THEN
ON TUESDAY WE'RE LOOKING AT A MIXED BAG, AS WE HAVE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT MAY WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES, AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE PANHANDLES. RIGHT NOW WE HOLD THE
FORECAST PRETTY STEADY IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
WOULD NOT THAT TUESDAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN ALL THE NOTED
FACTORS, AND THAT A STRONG COLD AIR MASS IS JUST OVER THE BORDER
INTO KS, AND IF THAT SHIFT FURTHER WEST, THEN WE'LL BE LOOKING A A
MUCH COLDER TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. POPS ARE REASONABLE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, LATEST RADAR WAS SEEING SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES WITH SOME BROKEN CLOUD DECKS NOT FAR BEHIND. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCES AT IMPACTS
COMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE
MINOR AS SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR STRONG GUST TO BE PRESENT AT KDHT WITH
POTENTIAL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40KT THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY, AND
A GOOD PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. TODAY THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES, DESPITE RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S, WILL SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS GIVEN THAT WINDS SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
GUST MAY EVEN BREAK 50MPH IN A COUPLE SPOTS. ERC'S OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WITH THE WINDS, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL, IS STILL ENOUGH TO GIVE RFTI'S 2-4,
JUST FROM WIND.
MOVING TO THURSDAY, THE WINDS WILL BE BACK, NOT QUITE AS STRONG, BUT
MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES, AND RH VALUES DOWN
AROUND 10 PERCENT. FOR THIS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. RFTI'S WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, WITH 1 TO 3 IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ001-006-011-016.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11
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