074
FXUS64 KAMA 011727
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.
-THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LATEST 16Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS BKN TO OVC SKIES
WITH TD VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO LOWER 50S
IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WITHIN THE FIRST MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVING SLOWLY ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WE ARE GETTING
SOME HIGHER 40 DBZ VALUES WHICH IS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. A SECOND PERTURBATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, WITH MOST AREAS JUST
RECEIVING A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION, IF THAT.
WE DO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, MAINLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE RIGHT ALONG THE
OK STATE LINE. CURRENT 16Z OBSERVATIONS IN THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN EASTERLY SFC COMPONENT TO THE WIND TRYING
TO ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES TO THE SE OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH CAN BE A FOCAL POINT OF
CONVECTION, IF OTHER MID LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHAT WE HAVE WORKING AGAINST US FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL DRIER AIRMASS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST HI-RES MODEL AND NUMERICAL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH SW H700-500 FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH GOOD FOR MOISTURE
PROFILES, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT TO OCCUR
WITH MID LEVEL CONDITIONALLY STABLE AIRMASS.
ON THE CONTRARY, ANALYZING SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUT MEMBERS, IN-CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BACKING WINDS IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE, IF WE CAN GET SOME
CLEARING SKIES, ALONG WITH THE PSEUDO DRYLINE PROGRESSION WEST TO
EAST EARLY ON IN TIMING, WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
IF THE IDEAL SETS UP OF 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH LL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS, ALL HAZARDS CAN BE IN PLAY FROM
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND EVEN A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DATA DOES SHOW ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING EAST BEHIND THE PSEUDO DRYLINE AS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR BETTER LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, HIGHER TD VALUES AND LOWER
CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TRENDS AND UPDATE MESOSCALE UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE DRY SLOT OF THE MAIN LOW DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW
WILL SET UP OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 70S IN THE NW TO UPPER 80S IN THE SE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. BUT OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR ARTS OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK (~20%
CHANCE). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES, BEFORE GUSTS DISSIPATE PAST
03-06Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT VFR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-
007-011-012-016-017.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-006-011-016.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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