896
FXUS64 KAMA 020338
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1038 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. BE
PREPARED FOR ANY NEW FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
-LOW CHANCE (~5%) OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LATEST 16Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS BKN TO OVC SKIES
WITH TD VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WEST TO LOWER 50S
IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WITHIN THE FIRST MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVING SLOWLY ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WE ARE GETTING
SOME HIGHER 40 DBZ VALUES WHICH IS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. A SECOND PERTURBATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL VERY LIGHT SHOWERS FOR PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, WITH MOST AREAS JUST
RECEIVING A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION, IF THAT.
WE DO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, MAINLY FOR THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE RIGHT ALONG THE
OK STATE LINE. CURRENT 16Z OBSERVATIONS IN THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN EASTERLY SFC COMPONENT TO THE WIND TRYING
TO ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES TO THE SE OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH CAN BE A FOCAL POINT OF
CONVECTION, IF OTHER MID LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ARE IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHAT WE HAVE WORKING AGAINST US FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL DRIER AIRMASS STILL HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST HI-RES MODEL AND NUMERICAL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WITH SW H700-500 FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH GOOD FOR MOISTURE
PROFILES, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT TO OCCUR
WITH MID LEVEL CONDITIONALLY STABLE AIRMASS.
ON THE CONTRARY, ANALYZING SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HI-RES
MODEL OUTPUT MEMBERS, IN-CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BACKING WINDS IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE, IF WE CAN GET SOME
CLEARING SKIES, ALONG WITH THE PSEUDO DRYLINE PROGRESSION WEST TO
EAST EARLY ON IN TIMING, WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
IF THE IDEAL SETS UP OF 2000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH LL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS, ALL HAZARDS CAN BE IN PLAY FROM
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND EVEN A TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DATA DOES SHOW ELEVATED STORMS
MOVING EAST BEHIND THE PSEUDO DRYLINE AS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR BETTER LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, HIGHER TD VALUES AND LOWER
CLOUD COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TRENDS AND UPDATE MESOSCALE UPDATES
ACCORDINGLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE DRY SLOT OF THE MAIN LOW DEVELOPING IN THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW
WILL SET UP OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE
FROM UPPER 70S IN THE NW TO UPPER 80S IN THE SE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. BUT OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR ARTS OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK (~20%
CHANCE). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DESPITE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES.
THE SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED WITH CIGS CLOSER TO 10KFT AGL. THAT
BEING SAID, WILL NOT RULE OUT A VERY BRIEF REDUCTION IN VIS THAT
MIGHT GO MVFR DUE TO BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT HAPPENS AND THEREFORE NOT NOTED IN THE TAFS. OVERALL,
LLWS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS WE HAVE
A 45-50KT WEST TO NORTHWEST JET AROUND 2KFT AGL. WINDS WILL RELAX
A BIT IN THE 12-18Z TIME PERIOD, OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST, AND
PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 15-20KTS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
AFTER 18Z.
WEBER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WHILE TODAY ENDED UP WITH TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND WE DIDN'T WARM UP
AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, THE WESTERN PANHANDLES STILL DID GET SOME
BREEZY WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RFTI'S OF 2-4 DID OCCUR, FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
STORY. WE DO EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER, AND DRIER
ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S, AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THAT
IT'S GOING TO BE SOLID ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT FROM
ABOUT 1PM TO 8PM WE DO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, AND THAT COMBINED WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WILL SUPPORT RFTI'S
3-4, MAYBE ISOLATED 5, BUT THAT'S ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WITH ERC'S OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE. RIGHT NOW THE
THOUGHT IS A TRIMMING SOME OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES FROM THE WATCH
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WINDS WILL GET TO 20MPH FOR MORE THAN 3
HOURS, SO WE'LL BE LOOKING AT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND STAIR STEP
IT UP TO TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
FOR FRIDAY, WE MAY BE CRITICAL AGAIN IN THE SOUTH AS WE HAVE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT THAT SHOULD BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH
WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE UNCERTAIN
WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH BY MID DAY AND LIGHTER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ001-002-
006-007-011-016.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89
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