986
FXUS64 KAMA 020533
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. BE
PREPARED FOR ANY NEW FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
-LOW CHANCE (~5%) OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CO WESTERN KS AREA WILL TRACK
EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST CO. THE OVERALL JET ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH, BUT WE STILL MAY HAVE SOME BREEZY WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH,
AND VERY WARM DRY AIR IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE IN THE
80S. THIS BREEZY, WARM, AND DRY COMBINATION WILL STILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS THE
ERC'S ARE STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT
TONIGHT (THURSDAY NIGHT) AND KEEP THE AIR MIXED WELL, AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE VERY MILD IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE CO/WY AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS HIGHLY IN QUESTION, WHICH
LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF WE WILL HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. SOME HIGHER RES MODELS ARE MOVING THE
FRONT THROUGH MID-DAY, WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO
THE NORTH AND KEEPING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY.
ALSO, WE EXPECT A DRYLINE SETUP ON FRIDAY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE OK/TX BORDER AND OUR IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE, WITH MAYBE JUST SOME HIGH BASED STORMS
PRODUCING SOME WIND GUST AS OUR MAIN IMPACT. AS WITH THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS, THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF HOPE FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE THAT IT MAY BE AHEAD OF THAT DRYLINE SETUP, AND COULD SEE
SOME STORMS THAT WOULD PRODUCE DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT ALSO COULD
GET SEVERE WEATHER. COLD FRONT CERTAINLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL DROP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S
FOR THE NORTHWEST TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, WE CAN EXPECT THAT SATURDAY
WILL HAVE MILD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOME AREAS. OVERALL,
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, WE DO HAVE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST THAT BATTLES THAT RIDGE AND
GIVES IT MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. FOR THIS, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES,
THEN WE MIGHT WARM UP INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS WE GET SOME
ENHANCEMENT OUT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. WILL NOTE THAT SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY AND
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ARE THERE TO REPRESENT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE IN
NM THAT MAY REACH OUR AREA. THAT MOISTURE MAY BE OVER THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL NOW
EXPAND TO THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. THE PATTERN ISN'T TOO EXCITING AT
THIS POINT FOR AMPLE MOISTURE, BUT STILL HAVE THOSE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY AS LLWS OUT OF THE WEST
NORTHWEST 40-50KTS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM NOW THROUGH 12-18Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KTS THROUGH ABOUT 12-15Z IN WHICH WINDS WILL COME DOWN CLOSER TO
10KTS, EXCEPTION WOULD BE KGUY THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE IN THE
10-15KT RANGE AFTER 9Z. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AFTER 21Z OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST 15-20KTS GUSTING 25-30KTS. WINDS WILL START TO
RELAX AGAIN AFTER 03Z.
WEBER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WHILE TODAY ENDED UP WITH TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND WE DIDN'T WARM UP
AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED, THE WESTERN PANHANDLES STILL DID GET SOME
BREEZY WINDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND RFTI'S OF 2-4 DID OCCUR, FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT
STORY. WE DO EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER, AND DRIER
ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S, AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THAT
IT'S GOING TO BE SOLID ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT FROM
ABOUT 1PM TO 8PM WE DO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, AND THAT COMBINED WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS WILL SUPPORT RFTI'S
3-4, MAYBE ISOLATED 5, BUT THAT'S ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WITH ERC'S OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE. RIGHT NOW THE
THOUGHT IS A TRIMMING SOME OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES FROM THE WATCH
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WINDS WILL GET TO 20MPH FOR MORE THAN 3
HOURS, SO WE'LL BE LOOKING AT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND STAIR STEP
IT UP TO TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA.
FOR FRIDAY, WE MAY BE CRITICAL AGAIN IN THE SOUTH AS WE HAVE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT THAT SHOULD BE LATER IN THE DAY
AND DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH
WOULD SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE UNCERTAIN
WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS HIGH RES MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH BY MID DAY AND LIGHTER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ001-002-
006-007-011-016.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011-016.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page