934
FXUS64 KAMA 030456
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1156 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TODAY. BE PREPARED FOR ANY NEW FIRES TO SPREAD QUICKLY.
-LOW CHANCE (15%) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
MAIN THREAT, TORNADOS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
-FURTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WORK, BE SURE TO BE FIRE SAFE AND PREVENT WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
TODAY A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
WILL BECOME STRONGER AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN DOING SO THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS IS SETTING UP A LEE TROUGH TOWARDS
THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH
OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE CAUSING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE AMBIENT DRY
CONDITIONS IS CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SEE THE
FIRE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BRINGING IN
WARMER DOWNSLOPING AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO AMPLE
HEATING. THIS IS CAUSING THE TEMPERATURES TO GO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MAINLY THE 80S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A SUNNY
AND CALM WEATHER DAY.
FRIDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. BY DOING SO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOST
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY. AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE COLD FRONT HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BIG QUESTION IS EXACTLY
WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL. THE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND STALL
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TX PANHANDLE. STILL THERE ARE SOME MODELS
THAT HINT THAT IT WILL STALL IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AROUND
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WHERE THIS STALLS IS IMPORTANT AS THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE FORMATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY. GOING WITH THE MOST
LIKELY FRONTAL PLACEMENT OF IT BEING MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES, THIS WOULD LIMIT THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. IF THE FRONT
STALL FURTHER NORTH THEN THE EXPECTED ARE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER MORE OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUCH THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(15%) FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO TURN SEVERE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM SUCH STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH TORNADOS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THIS REALLY HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AGAIN AS A MORE SOUTHERLY FRONT CAN GREATLY LIMIT OR
EVEN ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR SUCH STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES. STILL
ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY
INTO OKLAHOMA PROPER CREATING A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE PANHANDLES. NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED WHICH IS LEADING TO RISK FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEE THE FIRE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. LATER DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL PUSH OUT ANY MOISTURE ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THERE IS
HIGH ENOUGH MOISTURE THEN THIS SECOND PUSH COULD ACT AS A FRONT
AND SPARK OFF SOME NOCTURNAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SINCE THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE SO LOW THEY ARE NOT
REFLECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE FINAL IMPACT FROM THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES OWING TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THIS WEEKEND THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOST
LIKELY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE THIS WEEKEND A
PERIOD OF DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WITH BREEZY WINDS. IT IS STILL MORE
LIKELY THAN NOT FOR THE COOLER AIR OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MEANS THE PANHANDLES WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
SATURDAY AND 70S FOR SUNDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO BE WEAK
ALLOWING FOR SMALL WEATHER SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS MEANS THAT EACH TIME A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WARM AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE HEATING EVEN IF IT WEAK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TO 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD LLWS OVER THE NEXT HOUR, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT FROM S, TO W, TO N AND NE AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. CAN EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UP
TO 18-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20'S (KTS). WIND
SHIFTS WILL BEGIN AT GUY AROUND 13Z, WITH DHT AND AMA FOLLOWING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY AIR. THE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BE A LEE TROUGH TODAY WHICH
MAKES THE WINDS STRONGER IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND WEAKER IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS WILL SEE THE SUSTAINED WINDS MAINLY
IN THE 20S MPH WITH THE GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL
STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. SINCE
THESE ARE SOUTHWEST WINDS THEY ARE BRINGING GENERALLY DRIER AIR
THAT WILL CAUSE THE RH TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TENS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE LEADING TO THE MIN RHS FALLING TO THE MID TEENS THIS
IS CREATING MAINLY 3 TO 5 RFTI ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH
LESSER 1 TO 2 RFTI FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. STILL
THE FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY SO EVEN WITH THESE MIDDLE RFTI VALUES
FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING RAPIDLY. STILL THE TRUE WINDOW
OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE NARROW TODAY AS THE STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE SUN WILL
SET LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE RH THAT WILL LESSEN THE RFTI
EVEN AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW.
FRIDAY IT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES HAVING A
HIGH CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EITHER STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THIS REGION THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THE COUPLING OF THE DRY
AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STILL
THE REQUIRES A CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT TO HELP DRIVE THE
WINDS SO IF THE FRONT PUSHES TO FAR TO THE SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED RATHER THAN CRITICAL. OWING TO THIS UNCERTAINTY
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...23
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