743
FXUS64 KAMA 030500
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES, SLOWLY SPINNING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 15-25 MPH, BUT WILL WEAKEN TO 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL STALL. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT STALLING, SUCH AS THE AI GFS AND AI ECMWF,
BUT CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT, GIVEN THIS IS A RELATIVELY WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH LIKELY WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
IF THE FRONT DOES STALL, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE TROUGH'S JET STREAK
WHICH WOULD CREATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO TURN SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY AND ADVECT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STALLED FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS VORTICITY STREAMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ALONG
WITH POSITIVE 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE FAVORED
THAN NOT TO STAY SOUTH OR EAST OF COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY, BUT THERE IS
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
SEE CONVECTION BETWEEN 4 PM TO 7 PM. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COMES FRIDAY EVENING AS SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
FRONT RETREATING SLIGHTLY AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AS
A PUSH OF COOL AND DRY AIR RACES SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. IF
THIS HAPPENS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH
1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE ALONG WITH 45-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE AREA.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A
WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A GREAT LAKES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
WITH A SOUTHERLY JET STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US. WE WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A SURFACE HIGH EXISTS TO THE EAST,
RESULTING IN A STEEP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CURRENT OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STALLING THE
FRONT IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, MOSTLY GEFS MEMBERS, THAT BRING THE FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS
THAT WOULD THROW A WRENCH IN TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IN
ANY CASE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AND THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME FAVORABLE FORCING
MECHANISMS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TURN
MORE ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY, AND WE COULD SEE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE WESTERN US LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. STAY TUNED.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TO 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD LLWS OVER THE NEXT HOUR, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE CALM
OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT FROM S, TO W, TO N AND NE AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. CAN EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UP
TO 18-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20'S (KTS). WIND
SHIFTS WILL BEGIN AT GUY AROUND 13Z, WITH DHT AND AMA FOLLOWING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...23
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