263
FXUS64 KAMA 032319
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- LOW CHANCE (15%) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR EASIER FIRE
STARTS.
- NEXT WORK WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH RAIN
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
ITS CENTER TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND IS CURRENTLY STALLING. THE STALLED FRONT IS HOLDING UP IN THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE NORTH WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AND
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT
THERE IS A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS JET IS CAUSING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TO SPIN UP ON THE STALLED COLD FRONT CREATING MORE OF
A SOUTH WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE MORE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE DRAWING UP SOME SURFACE MOISTURE THAT CAN FUEL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT AS THE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR IT TO
ARRIVE AT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THUS THE PLACEMENT OF
THE STALLED FRONT IS A KEY FEATURE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
THE PANHANDLES SEE ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY
THE FRONT IS STALLED IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WITH A SLIGHT TILT
SUCH THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ARE MORE NORTHERLY
THAN THE WESTERN PORTIONS. THIS ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS IS
LEADING TO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (10-50%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL, IF THE
FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BEFORE THE STORMS FORM IT WOULD
FURTHER LOWER THE PANHANDLES CHANCES TO SEE THE STORMS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITHIN THE
MOIST SECTOR IS AROUND 4 TO 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE MOIST
SECTOR THERE ARE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SPECIFICALLY, THE INSTABILITY THERE IS
A CORRIDOR OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT HIGH NEAR THE
PANHANDLES AND LOOK TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A THREAT POSED BY ANY SUPERCELL
THAT FORMS. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE
THAT IT IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF SUCH STRONG STORMS. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STORMS TO START WITHIN THE TEXAS THE PANHANDLE AND THEN PUSH OFF
TO OKLAHOMA PROPER BEFORE THEY BECOME SEVERE. SO THE AREA AND
TIME WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE TEXAS PANHANDLES IS
NARROW. THIS WINDOW WILL COME TO A FIRM SHUT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY ARE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LEAVING THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF CALM WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING OVER THE PANHANDLES THEN IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR IT TO
CONCENTRATE ALONG THIS PUSH TO SPARK OFF A NOCTURNAL RAIN SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. THE ODDS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE SO LOW THAT THEY
ARE NOT REFLECTED WITHIN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
NOW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH ALREADY SAW THE COLD FRONT
PASS THROUGH EARLIER, COOLER DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CREATING SOME CONCERNS FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH HIGHS TOPING OUT IN THE 60S. SO IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON
ENJOYING THE OUTDOORS BE FIRE SAFE AND PREVENT WILDFIRES BEFORE
THEY START.
SATURDAY THE COOL AIR FROM THE PREVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WHICH CAN MAKE IT FEEL JUST A BIT COOLER. STILL IT WILL BE DRY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SO THERE IS LIMITED CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SO IF YOU ARE INCLINED TO ENJOY THE SUNNY
WEEKEND DAY OUTDOORS BE CAREFUL WITH ANY FIRE SOURCES TO PREVENT
ANY WILDFIRE STARTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
KEEP DRY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR SUNDAY BUT
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE WEAK IN NATURE ALLOWING FOR WEATHER SYSTEM TO PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WEATHER SYSTEM
CAN DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR PERIODS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PERIOD
OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY TO LAST FOR MUCH OF, IF NOT
ALL, OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE IS STILL TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT
MUCH EMPHASIS ON RAIN AMOUNTS OF STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. SO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH FUTURE FORECAST TO LEARN THE LATEST
ON ANY CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 0Z TAF PERIOD.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT GUY BEGINNING AT 9Z, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NNE. AMA WILL SEE MORE CONSISTENT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 12-15 KTS, WHEREAS WIND SPEEDS AT DHT AND GUY
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...23/55
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