312
FXUS64 KAMA 170533
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. LIMIT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THAT CAN SPARK A FIRE AS THEY WILL BE VERY HARD TO
CONTROL.
-STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES
THAT MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.
-BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY AND AT TIMES BREEZY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW RETREATING DRYLINE NOW EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CANYON TO CANADIAN WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FINALLY COME
UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOOKING
ALOFT, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR NV/UT. A VERY WEAK
LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPED SPARK AN
ELEVATED STORM IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY AROUND 10 PM, BUT IT QUICKLY
DISSIPATED ON THE OKLAHOMA SIDE AS IT RAN INTO INCREASING CIN. THE
LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL KEEP ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
BELOW 10 PERCENT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL FIRST MOVE
OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH IMPINGES THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE RATON MESA AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP MIX OUR DRYLINE
QUICKLY TO THE EAST. THIS DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN UP
MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE OK/TX STATE LINE, AND THIS IS WHERE STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND RETAINED THE LOW
CHANCE POPS NEAR THE STATE LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HOLDING THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST. SEVERE CHANCE INCREASE
RAPIDLY EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DO SUPPORT
ALL HAZARDS, BUT CHANCE OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD, WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH THE DRY SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, WHERE DRY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY EVENING (SEE FIRE
WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION).
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY
AROUND 18Z TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND PERHAPS EVEN RETREATING
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
SOUTH THIS EVENING BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z AND 06Z. STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BECOMING MORE APPARENT AND ARE CERTAINLY
SUPPORTED GIVEN 4+ MB/HR SFC HEIGHT RISES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET BEHIND THE FRONT. HREF MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING SOME
ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH/WARNING YET.
CONFIDENCE IN 50-55 MPH GUSTS IS HIGH, SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE FILLED IN LATER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY ONLY
LAST 2-4 HOURS, BUT WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED FOR 6-8 HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING A HIGH CHANCE (80%+) FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES AND A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE ACROSS
THE REMAINING AREAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE OFF SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
WARD
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A LOT OF THE AREA COULD SEE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, BUT
THE NORTHWEST IS MOST FAVORED ONCE AGAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS MOVING OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN UPWARD
TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT NO STRONG
SIGNALS FOR RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARD
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE
RAMPING BACK UP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO
40 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT MAINLY BEFORE 15Z TOMORROW.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD
FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT KGUY BY MID DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT THE NORTH WIND SHIFT WILL NOT
IMPACT KAMA OR KDHT UNTIL AFTER 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
WARD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A "NEAR-
MISS" SETUP FOR AN OUTBREAK SCENARIO. THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AREN'T
PERFECTLY IN SYNC, BUT WE HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES OVER
5000 ACRES IN THESE SCENARIOS BEFORE, SO TODAY IS CERTAINLY ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE CRITICAL SCALE. RFTIS OF 5-7 WILL BE COMMON
TODAY WITH A FEW 8S WHERE WINDS OVERPERFORM AND/OR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 6 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MODEST
TODAY FOR PANHANDLE STANDARDS, WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 35 TO 40
MPH RANGE (A FEW ISOLATED 45 MPH GUSTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON). THAT SAID, WITH ERCS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN
RECENT DAYS OF ACCELERATED DRYING, IT WON'T TAKE AS MUCH WIND FOR
FIRES TO HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH RESISTANCE TO CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT AREAS
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE OK/TX STATE LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM INITIALLY ON THE DRYLINE COULD
START A FEW FIRES, AS THEY ARE NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEY MOVE EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FINALLY, A COLD FRONT
WILL BE IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND THIS FRONT
IS LIKELY TO BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAINLY BETWEEN
7 PM AND 1 AM TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND A FEW 60 MPH GUSTS CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES CALIBRATED TO OUR ASOS INSTRUMENTS
SUGGEST A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 60 MPH GUSTS THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 1 AM
AND 8 AM.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>020-317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ001>010-012>015-018>020.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001-002-006.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ003-007-011-016.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ001>003.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ001-002.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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