211
FXUS64 KAMA 180004
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
704 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. LIMIT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THAT CAN SPARK A FIRE AS THEY WILL BE VERY HARD TO
CONTROL.
-STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES THAT MAY
FALL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
-BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY AND AT TIMES BREEZY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, CERTAINLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING.
SOUTH OF THAT FRONT WILL STILL HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, WHILE
NORTH OF FRONT HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S AND WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. DRYLINE CURRENTLY ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER AND STORMS
ARE FIRING OF JUST AS ANTICIPATED RIGHT ON OUR EDGE. FOR THE MOST
PART WE EXPECT THE STORMS TO STAY EAST OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT THAT
ISOLATED THREAT IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EAST JUST IN
CASE. AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT THOSE WINDS
TO RAMP UP, AND THE 3HR PRESSURE CHANGES ARE PRETTY INTENSE
RANGING FROM 15 TO 18MB. WHILE WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLE, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH GIVEN THE PRESSURE CHANGES. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 9 TO 11PM THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT SO MUCH THAT WE'LL HAVE TEMPERATURE
NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTH. WE
COULD HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST AS WELL. WINDS WILL START TO COME DOWN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH ON
SATURDAY, AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL RELAX TO BE AT OR BELOW 10 MPH, AND THAT COUPLED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSE TO, IF
NOT BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. FREEZE WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND WESTERN PANHANDLE, BUT FROST LOOKS
TO BE FAVORED ANY AREAS THAT FAILS TO FREEZE SO SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE GOOD TO PROTECT VEGETATION REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE IN
THE PANHANDLES.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WITH THE COOLER AIR EXITING OFF TO THE EAST, AN UPPER HIGH WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND WARM AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLES. THAT WILL RETURN
HIGHS IN THE 70S WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
THAT WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. MOVING INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT AND WE MIGHT
MANAGE TO GET A SHOWER OR STORM ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION, BUT AS OF LATE
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE ON
THURSDAY AND IT COULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FIRE
WEATHER DAY. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE DRYLINE SETUP AND WHERE THE
MAIN MOISTURE AXIS ENDS UP.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS THE PERIOD
OF STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS CAN PICK UP ENOUGH DUST TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KDHT AND
KGUY, AND WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT KAMA BY 02Z.
WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SHOULD
PEAK BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS
TO EXCEED 50 KNOTS AT KAMA AND KDHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 15 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL REMAINS NORTHERLY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENT COLD FRONT STALLED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED OUT FROM DALHART TO STINNETT AND
CANADIAN. WHILE IT'S STALLED, IT STILL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRYING
TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
RELAXED IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S
TO 70S. AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT BEING FURTHER SOUTH THE RH VALUES
ARE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS THAT PUTS
THE RFTI'S AT 0. SOUTH OF THE FRONT RFTI'S ARE STILL 4 TO 7 AS
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING UPWARDS AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND RH VALUES DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES. AS THE WIND PICK UP LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN SURGE OF THE FRONT WE COULD STILL HAVE CRITICAL
RFTI'S FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE GETS TOO COLD OR RH
GET'S TOO HIGH. ANY ACTIVE FIRES WOULD BE SUBJECT TO SHARP WIND
SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH AND STILL COULD HAVE RAPID GROWTH DUE TO
HIGH WINDS, DESPITE RECOVERING RH VALUES IN TIME.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001>020.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001>003-006-
007.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ001>004-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...07
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