766
FXUS64 KAMA 180518
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
-BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AND AT TIMES BREEZY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORTWAVE IR SHOW THE COLD
FRONT ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP.
A FAIRLY SHALLOW PLUME OF DUST IS SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST GOES
DUST RGB MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH HARTLEY, DALLAM, SHERMAN
AND TEXAS COUNTIES AND THIS IS WHERE WIND GUSTS OVER 50MPH HAVE
BEEN MEASURED (PEAK OF 69 MPH AT DHT ASOS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS AS OF THIS
WRITING). WEBCAMS IN THE AREA SHOW MAINLY JUST HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH ASOS VISIBILITY AT KDHT ONLY BRIEFLY DOWN TO 4SM BEFORE
COMING UP TO 7SM. THUS, A DUST ADVISORY SHOULDN'T BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND GUSTS TO MAKE SURE
UPGRADES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED.
THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY, AND WITH LIMITED CAPE BUT DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG, WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THOSE
STORMS. THIS ARE FORMING BEHIND THE DRYLINE, SO THEY HAVE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND AREN'T EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BEGIN DROPPING OFF GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 15 KTS BY SUNRISE. MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE DISSIPATING TO
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZE WARNINGS LOOK GOOD FOR
TONIGHT, BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST ADVISORY IF WINDS CAN DROP
OFF QUICK ENOUGH FOR AREAS THAT DON'T HAVE A FREEZE WARNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS, SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THIS PLAINS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE OH AND MS VALLEYS BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND CLOUDS MINIMAL, SO ANOTHER DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZES. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER THE RATON
MESA, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLES. THUS,
BREEZY WINDS WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY, SO ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY (SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW).
WARD
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN UPWARD TREND IN OUR
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK
DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR RAIN
ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WARD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH SUNRISE. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. WIND WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNRISE AND REMAIN NORTHERLY UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN
THEY WILL VEER AROUND THE DIAL AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WARD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 829 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE THE RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
VERY DRY AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE WE DON'T EXPECTED ANYTHING OVERLY CONCERNING, ELEVATED TO
LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH RFTIS
AROUND 3-5. VERY TO LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE FUEL DRYNESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ERC STAYING
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
A MORE CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY EMERGE AROUND THURSDAY AS
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMPACT BUT STRONG
MID LEVEL JET STREAK. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE EXACT
MAGNITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF ITS FEATURES WILL DETERMINE WHAT AREAS
MAY SEE HIGHER END CRITICAL CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>003-006-
007.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ001>004-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001>003.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001>003.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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