802
FXUS64 KAMA 181803
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
103 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT SENSITIVE CROPS AND VEGETATION.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RESUME TOMORROW. FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY. SURFACE
WIND FLOW REMAINS NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL NOT TRANSITION BACK FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THE SURFACE
HIGH REPOSITIONS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA. LEE SIDE TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. LIGHT TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID
IN MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING BACK NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING (32 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT). A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA, INCLUDING THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AS THESE
ARE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES TONIGHT. AREAL
COVERAGE FOR FROST HAS A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING TONIGHT GIVEN HOW
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. STILL, SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED PATCHES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE RECENTLY WATERED OUTSIDE VEGETATION. THIS
WILL AID IN LOCALLY INCREASING THE DEWPOINT THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR PATCHES OF FROST TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES EASILY FALL BELOW
36 DEGREES AND SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
TOMORROW, WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 70S AND SKY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS
AND PERSISTENT LOW MINIMUM RH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE WHOLE FA TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES FULLY DISPLACED FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESUME IN IT'S PLACE. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE DRASTICALLY THROUGH THE NEW WEEK,
RATHER A STEADY INCLINE OF TEMPERATURES PROFILES IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES. LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. H700 THEATA-E PROFILES STILL APPEAR LACKLUSTER WITH
THE POTENTIAL TROUGH ARRIVAL AT THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, AS THE
BETTER MOISTURE FETCH CONTINUES TO FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO THE 80'S AND EVEN 90'S ON SOME DAYS. WAA IS
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH WINDY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
DROUGHT AND LOW POP CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TOWARDS THE END OF APRIL.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK, NAMELY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHERE MOISTURE SEEM COMPARABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. YET, THE NBM
CONTINUES TO KEEP POPS LOW FOR THOSE DAYS, LIKELY DUE TO CONCERNS OF
INHIBITION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES FOR OUR SOURCES OF
LIFT.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. BY TOMORROW, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT BACK TO BEING
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN THE LATE MORNING, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
NEAR OR OVER 20 KTS SUSTAINED AT ALL SITES. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TILL THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND.
RANGEL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ALMOST AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY GET UP TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. MAX RED FLAG
THREAT INDEX (RFTI) VALUES ARE UP TO 7 IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THIS AREA ALONGSIDE THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE WHERE WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST. THUS, MAXIMUM RFTI IN
THESE ZONES RANGE FROM 5-7. GIVEN HOW EARLY THE WINDS KICK UP, THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WINDOW WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND
SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS FINALLY DIE DOWN.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>004-006-
007-011-012-016-017-317.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>020-
317.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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