330
FXUS64 KAMA 191042
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
542 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ENTIRE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT SENSITIVE CROPS AND
VEGETATION.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES TODAY, AS WELL AS OTHER DAYS LATER THIS
WEEK. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A COOL, TRANQUIL, APRIL SATURDAY, WE FIND
OURSELVES RIGHT BACK IN THE THICK OF A DRY AND BREEZY FORECAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO START THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE SITUATED ATOP THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE IN PLACE. THESE FACTORS FAVOR SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES (10- 40% PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS >40 MPH). HIGHS IN THE
70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS WILL MAKE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EASILY PLUMMET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
WE FIND LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
PEAK WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS STIFF
COMPARED TO TODAY (15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35). MODELS DEPICT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT ALSO SHOW A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS, WHICH AT THE VERY LEAST
SHOULD SERVE TO REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL UNFORTUNATELY STILL BE DRY AND
BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND
IMPROVED MOISTURE COULD SPELL VERY LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE (AREAS SOUTH OF I-40). MUCH TO OUR
CHAGRIN, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF DATA KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE
AND MOISTURE PLUME SHUNTED JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, MEANING
ANY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY AROUND 15-20% OR
LESS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING IS THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR THE LONG TERM
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HEAVILY
FAVOR INCOMING SYSTEMS TO "DRY SLOT" THE REGION, LEAVING WARMER,
DRIER, AND BREEZY DAYS AHEAD WITH SOME WEAK COLD FRONTS
OCCASIONALLY MIXED IN. TUE-THU LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, BEFORE WE COOL BACK
DOWN IN THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND ONE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONTS. SYNOPTIC SIGNALS POINT TOWARDS
WED & THU BOTH BEING BREEZY FEATURING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AS WELL AS VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SOLIDLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY BOTH
DAYS SHOULD THIS FORECAST COME TO FRUITION. UNTIL WE GET
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE, JUST ABOUT EVERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY WILL
FEATURE AN ATTENDANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
WHILE A CONTINUATION OF THIS DRY PATTERN IS CERTAINLY FAVORED, THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A CONTINGENCY OF GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDING A GLIMPSE
OF STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS PLACE A 500MB LOW LIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY, DRAWING A DECENT SWATH OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E AND
GULF MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BASED ON MORE BULLISH
MODELS, A STOUT, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WOULD DRAPE A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, POTENTIALLY
LAGGING AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE LOCATION OF
THIS FEATURE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH, TIMING, AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO STAY IN
OUR CWA. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE SECTOR
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH THESE CONDITIONS, AND
IF CAPPING IS ABLE TO ERODE.
TO REITERATE, SOME MODELS PLACE THIS DRY LINE ACROSS OUR
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT WE'VE SEEN ALL TOO OFTEN THIS SEASON
THAT THIS FORECASTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A VERY HIGH CHANCE
TO KEEP MOISTURE JUST TO OUR EAST, OUTSIDE OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EITHER WAY, WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS ANY CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS. CURRENTLY, POPS ARE ONLY ~15% FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
QUICKLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW SPEED LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TO SET UP. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KGUY AND
KDHT AND IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE FOR
KAMA SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND
SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY GET UP TO 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED. MAXIMUM RFTI VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 5-7 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
GIVEN HOW EARLY THE WINDS KICK UP, THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
WINDOW WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY
EVENING WHEN WIND SPEEDS FINALLY DIE DOWN.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>004-006-
007-011-012-016-017-317.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
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