856
FXUS64 KAMA 191759
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1259 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. H850 WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
TROUBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL RESTRENGTHEN TONIGHT, KEEPING
WINDS BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A
25-35 KT LLJ SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CWA. TODAY, THE WIND
DIRECTION IS PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY. BY TOMORROW, A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED IN THE WIND FLOW. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF OUR WINDS TODAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REGION. 70 DEGREE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE TODAY.
TOMORROW, MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DISPLAY A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT
THE MIDLEVELS, OUR DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
AID IN ACHIEVING HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE SURFACE.
12Z CAMS STRUGGLE TO PLACE PRECIPITATION IN THE FA TOMORROW DUE TO
SOME PERSISTENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS THE
BEST SHOT AT RAINFALL, THOUGH QPF REMAINS QUITE MINIMAL. CLOUDS ARE
THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME FROM THIS MOISTURE INFLUX; AND WITH
INCREASING SKY COVERAGE, HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE EXTENDED,
THOUGH OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERTAKE THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE WARM AXIS
OF H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. 90S RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AT THE SURFACE, FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
MOISTURE MAY STAY LIMITED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG RANGE
MODEL ATTEMPT TO SHOW SOME SORT OF REFLECTIVITY IN OUR EAST ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY SEEMS TO PREVENT THE NBM FROM
INCREASING POPS. 1-3 KM FORECAST THETA-E PROFILES SHOW THE MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IF
THIS TREND HOLDS, POPS WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES.
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE STRONGLY ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER SUNSET, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BUT REMAIN BREEZY
OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING, STRONG WINDS WILL REVAMP OVER
THE FA. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BACK SLIGHTLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
STAY STRONG AT THE SURFACE INSTEAD OF REMAINING ALOFT. WE'VE LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, BUT THEY COULD BE ADDED IN
A FUTURE PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
RANGEL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH). NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR FORECAST CONDITIONS TODAY. STRONG,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE TEXLINE
MESONET ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH. A FEW OTHER SITES HAVE
ALREADY GUSTS CLOSE TO 35 MPH AS WELL. MOST RFTI VALUES SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON RANGE BETWEEN 3-5. WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH REACHING 6 AND 7. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE BY 8 PM THIS EVENING, BUT ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARDS.
TOMORROW, INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW RH TO STAY ABOVE 20% FOR
MOST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS SURFACE WINDS RESTRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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