329
FXUS64 KAMA 201047
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
547 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING AND ACTIVITIES THAT
CAUSE OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES ARE DISCOURAGED.
- 10-20% CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IN THE AREA.
- WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE LOW,
BUT STORMS COULD BE IMPACTFUL IF THEY DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO OUR WEST, WHICH IS
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY, HELPING
US WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. MODELS ALSO SHOW A BROAD LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON - EVENING AS WELL, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID-
LEVEL WINDS AIDING MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE HIGH PLAINS
AND BIG COUNTRY OF WEST TEXAS. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS WILL SERVE
TO REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL UNFORTUNATELY STILL BE DRY
AND BREEZY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT AND IMPROVED MOISTURE COULD SPELL VERY LOW SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO NO ONE'S SURPRISE,
THE VAST MAJORITY OF DATA CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS DISTURBANCE AND
MOISTURE PLUME SHUNTED JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, MEANING ANY
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY AROUND 15-20% OR LESS
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. IF WE DO MANAGE TO PULL BETTER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP, RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (80-90% CHANCE FOR TOTALS <0.1").
AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITS, ANOTHER SHORT LIVED RIDGE WILL PUSH
OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. AFTER A MORNING LOW STRATUS DECK
(PERHAPS SOME FOG) GRADUALLY BURNS OFF, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH THE 80S. DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY OTHER
NOTEWORTHY WEATHER HEADLINE OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HEAVILY FAVOR WARMER, DRIER, AND
BREEZY DAYS AHEAD. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, BEFORE WE COOL BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. SYNOPTIC SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS WED & THU BOTH BEING BREEZY, FEATURING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30-40 MPH, AS WELL AS VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. SOLIDLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WOULD BE LIKELY BOTH DAYS SHOULD THIS FORECAST COME TO FRUITION.
LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
COULD EXIST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TWO ARRIVING LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME.
THESE FRONTS ARE TRENDING EVEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
ITERATIONS, BUT MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO WORK
WITH FOR RAIN PRODUCTION.
FOCUSING ON MORE IMMINENT CHANCES, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FEW
OUTLIER MODELS GIVING A GLIMPSE OF STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PLACE A 500MB
TROUGH/LOW LIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, DRAWING A
DECENT SWATH OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E AND GULF MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION. MOST MODELS PREDICT A STOUT, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, DRAPING A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH/DRY
LINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS (POTENTIALLY LAGGING AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES). THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH, TIMING, AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR IT TO STAY IN OUR CWA. EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY, A WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE SECTOR WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
WOULD HYPOTHETICALLY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS
POTENTIALLY WORKING AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO: EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER, POTENTIALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, STOUT CAPPING
INVERSIONS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR
MIXING TO CHOKE OUT ANY ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM THOUGH, THEY COULD HAVE CONDITIONS TO
BECOME SEVERE. CURRENTLY, POPS ARE ONLY ~15% FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, QUICKLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY AT ALL TERMINAL WITH THE WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SPEED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT BUT THE
CHANCES ARE TO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON TO EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHER TO CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CHANCES OF THESE
IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL IS TO LOW AND NOT REFLECTED IN ANY TAF.
THEN A LOW BANK OF CLOUD WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THIS BANK OF CLOUD WILL
MOST LIKELY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TO FORM UNDER THIS BANK
OF CLOUDS AS WELL WHICH CAN FURTHER WORSEN CONDITIONS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
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