047
FXUS64 KAMA 202335
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- A SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS WEDNESDAY COULD SET UP MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THAT AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCES AT STORM IN OUR
EAST.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER COULD FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SERIES OF
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES TO GREET THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE STILL PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER,
LATEST CAMS ARE STILL PROJECTING A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE COURSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TWO FUNCTIONS, THE FIRST BEING INCREASING
WINDS SPEEDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS LATEST OBSERVATIONS
WHERE ALREADY SEEING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THESE
WINDS, ALONGSIDE SOME STILL DRY CONDITIONS, ARE CURRENTLY THE MAIN
DRIVER IN TODAY'S ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS . THANKFULLY
THESE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN AS THE SECONDARY
FUNCTION FOR THIS TROUGH WILL SEE SOME MID TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CHANCES OF THIS MOISTURE PRODUCING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS LOW (10 TO 15%), PRESENT RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SEEN A FEW SHOWERS TAKE FORM TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL TO THE BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR THIS EXCESS MOISTURE TO LEAD TO
SOME OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WITH A LOW
CHANCES AT FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. MOVING INTO
TUESDAY PROPER GIVES US ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY THANKS TO THE
EXIT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND THE STILL PRESENT RIDGE. WINDS WILL
STAY A BIT BREEZY FOR THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY CONTAINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES THANKS TO THE EXPECTED GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO STILL BE HOLDING ON FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODEL AGREEMENT SEES A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIG
SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL LOOK TO SET
UP A MORE CLASSIC PANHANDLES DRY-LINE SCENARIO WHERE ANYTHING WEST
OF THE DRY-LINE WILL LIKELY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE DAY,
WHILE ANYTHING EAST COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT HAS
BEEN HIT AND MISS WITH THE ONGOING MODEL RUNS IS THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE DRY-LINE FOR THAT AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS THE
PRESENT GFS SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING MORE ON A DRY BIAS THAT WOULD
PLACE MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEST OF THE LINE. MEANWHILE, THE
GLOBAL MODELS, LIKE THE ECMWF, ARE GIVING US A BIT MORE OF A FAIR
CHANCES OF SEEING SOME ACTIVE WEATHER. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLES, THEY
ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER SOLUTION WITH THE NBM ONLY
GIVING US AROUND A 10 TO 20% PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR EAST. STILL THESE CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE
WATCH AS PRESENT SPC ANALYSIS IS GIVING US A MODERATE (1 OUT 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR THE FIRE
WEATHER SIDE OF THINGS, WINDS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE BREEZY TO GUSTY
SIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOKING TO REACH THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. HOWEVER, THE REAL THREAT MAY PROVE TO
BE THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PRESENT AGREEMENT SEEING AREAS WEST OF
THE DRY-LINE HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT.
CURRENTLY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS AREA
WILL STAY WEST OF THE DRY-LINE. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD LOOK TO REPEAT THURSDAY AS A WEAK-DRY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH IN THAT DAY AND KEEP WIND SPEED UP UNDER STILL DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER COULD FOLLOW FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND AS MODELS SEE A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGH PUSH SOUTH
FROM THE CANADIAN BOARDER. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS POTENTIALLY PEAK AROUND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BREEZY THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING TO 10-20KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW CLOUD DECK IS SET
TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS,
BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO KAMA, LIFTING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KGUY AND KDHT.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
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