062
FXUS64 KAMA 211105
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY, RETURNING FOR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
- VERY LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR A STORM OR TWO IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEY
COULD BE SEVERE.
- WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
TODAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE RELATIVELY BETTER WEATHER DAYS OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, ESPECIALLY ONCE MORNING CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, AND WILL
ALSO KEEP WINDS AT BAY, PEAKING AT A TYPICAL PANHANDLE BREEZE OF
10-20 MPH. DRIER CONDITIONS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, BUT THANKFULLY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD.
IN TRUE PANHANDLE SPRING FASHION, WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER POSES A TWO
FACETED FORECAST: FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST, AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IN THE EAST. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. A 500MB TROUGH/LOW WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
DRAWING AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E AND GULF MOISTURE TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY 50S DEW POINTS AND 0.5-1.0" PWATS, SITUATED TO THE EAST OF A
SURFACE DRY LINE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUD DECKS AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, GRADUALLY BURNING OFF BY
THE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S,
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE UTILIZED TOWARDS BUILDING AN
UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-
1500 J/KG RANGE ARE FAVORED BY MOST MODELS, ALONG WITH 30-50 KT BULK
SHEAR VALUES. GIVEN THIS PARAMETER SPACE, ANY STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP
COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
QUESTIONS ON THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR
PLACE DOUBT ON ANY TORNADO THREAT FOR NOW.
TO ELABORATE MORE ON THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS STORM THREAT,
WE'LL START BY MENTIONING THAT THERE'S ONLY ABOUT A 15% CHANCE FOR
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION
(WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE) BEING DEPICTED BY THE VAST MAJORITY
OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS CAP MAY NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM,
BUT IS SET TO BE QUITE DEEP, POSSIBLY SPANNING THE ENTIRETY OF THE
850-700MB LAYER. CAM PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS CAP MAY ERODE
EXPLICITLY ALONG THE DRY LINE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED
UPWARD, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN IF STORMS TRY TO GET GOING,
THEY SHOULD STRUGGLE MIGHTILY TO SURVIVE AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT INDICATIVE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
"ORPHAN ANVILS". ON TOP OF THESE ALREADY MENACING OBSTACLES,
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO ARRIVE
TOO LATE IN THE EVENING, AND IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH
OF THE PANHANDLES TO BETTER INVIGORATE THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE
THIS PLETHORA OF NEGATIVES, A FEW HI-RES CAMS INSIST A SUPERCELL
OR TWO COULD DEFY THE ODDS AND LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
DYING OFF CLOSER TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY, BUT IF ONE
DOES FORM, IT COULD BE IMPACTFUL.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS UNFORTUNATELY FAR SIMPLER THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT,
AS A 250MB JET SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM.
THIS FAVORS RENEWED LEE CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES,
PLACING AN EVEN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THIS IN
TANDEM WITH BETTER JET DYNAMICS AND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FAVORS
SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45
MPH. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY APRIL AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED, FEATURING
MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR THIS DAY AS WE GET CLOSER.
ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL
FRI-SAT, ALLOWING WEAK COLD FRONTS TO REACH THE REGION. THESE "COOL
DOWNS" ARE MINIMAL THOUGH, ONLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE DATA STILL HINTS THAT SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD EXIST THIS WEEKEND WITH ANY MOISTURE
POOLED BEHIND THE FRONT (20-30% POPS), PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING WHEN A BETTER DISTURBANCE MAY
ARRIVE. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS STILL PROVIDES STRONG SIGNALS
TOWARDS ANY APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEMS BRINGING MORE "DRY SLOTS"
THAN MOISTURE TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A LOW CLOUD DECK IS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND
KDHT THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE LOW CLOUD DECK RETURNS FOR THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KAMA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE
FOR KGUY TO BE IMPACTED SO FOR NOW THE CLOUD BANK IS NOT INCLUDED
WITHIN THE THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST OF A DRY LINE, WHERE FUELS REMAIN
READY TO BURN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH (10% CHANCE FOR A ROGUE GUST
OVER 40 MPH). AS TEMPERATURES WARM, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10%, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING CLOSER TO 5%.
THIS WILL CREATE RFTI VALUES OF 4-6, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND
SUBSEQUENT RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED SOME EXPANSION DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE DRY LINE SETS UP.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011-016.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
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