277
FXUS64 KAMA 212339
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
- VERY LOW CHANCES EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEY
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY PROVIDE LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LATEST OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SEEN THE OVERNIGHT
MOISTURE STILL HOLDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MOST STATIONS
REPORTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (RH) AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE VALUES HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT WITH SOME BRIEF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY. THESE RH VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY ONCE AGAIN WHICH WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, DOES SEE A NEW AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH START TO PUSH IN AROUND THE AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A MORE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLES AND, IN TURN, CREATE A CLASSIC DRY-LINE
SCENARIO FOR THE DAY. TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LOOK FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER THAN 10% WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. WHAT MAY BE OUR SAVING GRACE IS THE
ACTUAL POSITION OF THE DRY LINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY,
LATEST CAMS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE DRY-LINE
FURTHER WEST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH THE LINE NOT AS SHARP AS
INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR BIT MORE RELIEF TO THE
PANHANDLES WITH ONLY THE WESTERN TWO STACKS OF COUNTIES UNDER
CLEAR CUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE DAY. GIVEN THIS, WE HAVE
CHOSEN TO UPGRADE THESE AREAS TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE DAY.
MEANWHILE TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE, MODEL AGREEMENT DOES SEE
MUCH BETTER MOISTURE THAT COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFTERNOON. WHAT HAS BEEN KILLING OUR CONFIDENCE
IN SUCH A THING ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS THE EXPECTED DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS AIR MASS WILL MOST LIKELY
RESULT IN A STRONG CAP THAT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP WITH CHANCES ONLY AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT AT BEST. STILL
IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP, THEN INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR A STORM
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AS IT STANDS, LATEST CAMS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OR MLCAPE WITH SOME
ROUGE POCKETS OF 2000 MIXING IN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THESE VALUES WOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL UP TO
HALF-DOLLAR (1.25 INCHES), ESPECIALLY WITH BULK SHEAR PEAKING
AROUND 40KT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY LAYER, CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN MORE FOCUSED ON THE WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN DCAPE HAS BEEN
UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG FOR THE DAY. SUCH VALUES IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
COULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UPWARDS 0F 65 MPH WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH
70 MPH DEPENDING ON THE STORM MOTION. STILL THIS POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, WITH EVERYTHING RIDING ON THE LOW CHANCES OF A
STORM ACTUALLY DEVELOPING AND SUSTAINING ITSELF.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LOOK TO HOLD FOR THE
PANHANDLES THURSDAY AS MODELS DEPICT A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN BOARDER. THIS FLOW WILL AID IN FORCING
THE DRY-LINE FROM WEDNESDAY WELL EASTWARDS RESULTING IN A VERY DRY
AND HOT DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SEEN
THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH SOME AREAS GETTING AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT THAT
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL ALSO LOOK TO PEAK AROUND
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN. ADDED TO THESE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD HAVE
GUSTS REACH UPWARDS OF 40 MPH THANKS TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER THAT NIGHT. OF COURSE, SUCH CONDITION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR ENTIRE COMBINE PANHANDLES THAT AFTERNOON.
MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY FOLLOW FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FRIDAY AS DRY CONDITION LOOK TO HOLD BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HOWEVER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY BE IN STORE THIS
WEEKEND AS MODEL SEE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH ACROSS
SOMETIME SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE MORE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO HIGH TO HAVE TOO MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN IT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURE TO FLUCTUATE A
BIT WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT STILL STAY IN THE 70S TO 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HAVE NOTED SCT015 AT KAMA AS MVFR LOW CLOUDS COULD BE AN
ISSUE FOR A FEW HOURS IN AROUND 13Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME TO GO BNK. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE GUSTING 25-30KTS STARTING IN THE
14-17Z TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT FROM 04Z-14Z WE WILL BE MORE IN THE
10-15KT RANGE.
WEBER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A CLASSIC DRY-LINE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY SEE THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES UNDER ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY WINDS WILL LOOK TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 40
MPH. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH OUR FAR WEST LOOKING AT VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT. WHAT WILL
AID IN KEEPING THESE CONDITIONS MORE CONTAINED WILL BE THE
PLACEMENT OF THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS THE LACK OF A SHARP GRADIENT
PRESENT BETWEEN IT. CURRENT CAMS HAVE BEEN IN HEAVY AGREEMENT TO
THE LINE SETTLING DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF GUYMON, OK WHICH JUST
SKEW IT A LITTLE EAST OF THE EXACT CENTER OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
HELPS AS IT HAS GIVE A LITTLE RELIEF TO OUR EAST, ESPECIALLY
SINCE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEES THEM HAVING STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS THAT CAN GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH THAT AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
MORE FORCED GRADIENT, THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE HELP TO OUR WEST
AS IT MAKE IT SO THE HEAVY DROP IN RH WILL NOT BE AS
INSTANTANEOUS, AND INSTEAD WE WILL GET A MORE GRADUAL DROP THAT
MAY TAKE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON TO SEE. THIS UNFORTUNATELY GETS
THROWN OUT THE WINDOW FOR THURSDAY AS THE INCOMING FRONT AND
WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL FORCE THE DRY-LINE WELL EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE PANHANDLES
EXPERIENCING RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 40 MPH ACROSS OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THIS A FIRE
WATCH HAS BEEN PUT IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES FOR THAT
AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ001-002-
006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89
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