612
FXUS64 KAMA 221050
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES ON TODAY, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
- VERY LOW CHANCES EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THE COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
DRYLINE WILL SET UP TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO MAYBE EVEN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THAT LINE WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS TO START THE MORNING AND SOME HIGHER RH VALUES TO HELP THE
GRASSES OUT A BIT. BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX TO
AT LEAST THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES (AMARILLO TO GUYMON AREA, OR EAST OF
THAT LINE) AND THAT WILL PUT THE WEST IN THE LINE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. JUST ALONG THAT DRYLINE WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO FIRE OFF. THE STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY
TAKE ANY STORM THAT FORMS OFF THE DRYLINE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER
AN AREA OF STRONG CIN (CAPPED) AND THEREFORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
SURVIVE. BUT JUST ALONG THAT DRYLINE, THERE'S ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO GET AT LEAST A HIGH BASED SUPERCELL TO START
UP. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT A LARGER HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED CAPE THE
HAIL THREAT WILL RANGE FROM A PENNY TO A HALF DOLLAR (0.75" -
1.25"). WILL NOTE THAT IF A STORM CAN FIRE OFF MORE BEHIND THE
DRYLINE THE HIGHER BASE, AND MORE DCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE, ADDING
THE POTENTIAL WIND THREAT. WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH, BUT
MORE LIKELY WE'LL BE SEEING SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. AS NOTED EARLIER FURTHER WEST WINDS WILL BE 20-30 MPH
AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. AN RFW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NOTED AREAS,
AND WILL BE OPEN TO EXPANDING IT FURTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES IF THE DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER EAST IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DRYLINE WILL NOT RETREAT MUCH AS A LEE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO WILL HOLD IT FAIRLY STEADY OFF THE CAPROCK. THIS
WILL SURGE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE BEHIND THE DRYLINE, AND AS A RESULT IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MIGHT GET AS
LOW AT 5% IN SOME AREAS AND WINDS SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE IT'S NOT A VERY STRONG FRONT, WE DO SEE A COLD
FRONT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OF COOLER AIR WILL LINGER IN THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A
MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHER AREA.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
ON FRIDAY ARM ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES BUT SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO WHILE IT WILL BE DRY AND
WARM, THE OVER ALL CONDITIONS SHOULD JUST BE ELEVATED WHEN IT COMES
TO FIRE WEATHER. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A RETURN
OF THE DRYLINE TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES, BUT ON SATURDAY IT'S
EXPECTED TO CURL OUT OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT THE OK PANHANDLE MAY
STILL BE IN PLAY AND LINE UP WITH A COLD FRONT IN KS. WHILE POPS
ARE LOW ~20%, THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SUNDAY OFF TO THE WEST AN UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS NV AREA SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE ON APPROACH, AND THIS WILL
BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM DRY AIR AND LIKELY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO BE WELL OFF TO THE
EAST. ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL HAVE A WELL STACKED JET ALOFT AND SO IT
WOULD BE LOOKING AT WIND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PANHANDLE FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A LOW BANK OF CLOUD CURRENTLY IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS CLOUD DECK IS CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAMA THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THEN THE CLOUD BANK
WILL DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OFF
A DRY LINE IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THE CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT ANY TERMINAL IS TO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN
THE TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN
WEAKEN GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS
BRINGS THE RISK OF OVERNIGHT SPEED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS SO IT IS NOT INCLUDED WITH THE CURRENT TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
DRYLINE SETUP TODAY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES WILL LEAD TO THE
WESTERN AREA HAVING RH VALUES DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT WITH WIND 15 TO
20 MPH AND THAT SETS UP RFTI'S IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE. GIVEN THE
TRANSITION FUELS OR CURED FUELS IN THE WEST, RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN TWO STACKS OF COUNTIES.
THURSDAY THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 MPH AS WELL AS RH VALUES DOWN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS, DO EXPECT THAT RFTI'S WILL RANGE 5-7, WITH ISOLATED 8S
POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS IS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES, AS THE NORTH
WOULD STILL BE BREEZY, BUT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND THEREFORE MAY ONLY HAVE RFTI'S OF 3-5.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WILL CONTINUE ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS, WITH
THE MAIN CONCERN BEING SUNDAY A THE NEXT STRONG WIND DAY AS RFTI'S
ARE LOOKING TO BE 4-6 RIGHT NOW AS WE HAVE ANOTHER STACKED JET SETUP
POTENTIALLY IN THE WORKS. OTHERWISE WE'LL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ON ALL
OTHER DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN WE AREA IN.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98
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