953
FXUS64 KAMA 221738
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES TODAY, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES TOMORROW (THURSDAY).
- VERY LOW CHANCES EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, THE COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES CONTINUE TO SEE THE SAME PATTERN OF WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A DRY LINE MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. EVEN WHEN THIS DRYLINE IS IN THE AREA, THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES ARE ONLY SEEING VERY SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO POP UP.
TODAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH SOME 10 TO MAYBE 15 POPS IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PANHANDLES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
SITTING OVER THE PACNW STATES AT THIS TIME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH HAS A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA A THIS TIME. BEHIND IT, DRY AIR CAN BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. THIS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO FILL INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY AND
FORM A DRYLINE THAT WILL BISECT THE FA SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. HENCE, THE FIRE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE. THE PROBLEM WITH
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS IS THAT CURRENTLY MODELS DEPICT A STRONG
CAP THAT NEEDS TO ERODE, BUT ALSO BECAUSE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LACKING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR
MOVES IN. MODELS HAVE CAPE VALUES AROUND 600 TO 1500 J/KG WITH
SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS. SO, IF SOMETHING CAN POP IT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY FROM HAIL UP TO 1"-1.25"
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. DCAPE, AFTER ALL, IS LOOKING
PLENTIFUL, UP TO 1500 J/KG WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES SURFACE
BASED.
OVERNIGHT, THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
VERY POOR RH RECOVERY TO AROUND 20 TO 35 PERCENT WHILE THE EASTERN
HALF COULD SEE RH VALUES IN THE 40 PERCENT NEAR THE DRYLINE TO UP TO
80 PERCENT IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES
CAUSING THE ENTIRE FA TO SEE RH VALUES DROPPING TO 6 TO 9 PERCENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE SW TO W WINDS WILL BE
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH THANKS TO THE NICE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND CANADA AND STAY THERE
FOR SOME TIME. THIS WILL AT LEAST SUPPRESS ANY RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE FA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
WITH MAY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SNEAKING INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST IN
BEAVER COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AFTER TOMORROW, IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING TO 9 PERCENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR KDHT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. KAMA
AND KGUY MAY NOT SEE THE 20 GUST 30 KTS UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A DRYLINE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SEPARATE THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM THE EAST WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 12 PERCENT
RANGE. FURTHER WEST FROM THE DRYLINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER AROUND 20 MPH. THE FAR WESTERN STACK OF COUNTIES IN TODAY'S
RED FLAG HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECAUSE
OF THIS. THE STACK OF COUNTIES THAT INCLUDE POTTER & RANDALL ON
ARE THE FENCE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND
FOR HOW LONG. THIS FEATURE WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT
LEAVING THE AREAS TO THE WEST WITH VERY POOR RH RECOVERIES IN THE
20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WHILE AREAS EAST MAY SEE RECOVERIES ABOVE
50 PERCENT.
TOMORROW THE DRYLINE WILL MIX WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES LEAVING
THE ENTIRE COMBINED PANHANDLES IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS WINDS RAMP BACK UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH (POTENTIALLY SOME 30 MPH
SUSTAINED) RANGE OUT OF THE SW TO W AND RH VALUES PANHANDLE WIDE
DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR LOWER. GUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING
40 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY
EVEN COME IN SOONER AND STALL LEAVING PORTIONS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THAT.
THANKS TO LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD DROP TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY EXIST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL
SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-
007-011-012-016-017-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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