151
FXUS64 KAMA 230517
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1217 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH A
LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERN
US WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET PUSHING INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
A PARTICULARLY DISTINCT SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA AND
WYOMING, WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE, WE
WILL SEE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES AND STALL OUT. GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST OF
THEIR ENSEMBLES KEEP THE FRONT IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHILE SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (E.G., 12KM NAM AND
HRRR) BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AS THE MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS MAKE IT.
WEAKER WINDS (10-20 MPH) IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT/SURFACE LOW OWING TO THE WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
THOSE SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAN EXPECTED 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A 20-50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 45 MPH SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH, ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BREEZY WINDS, WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WHICH WILL BRING THE WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER TOWARD SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY BEHIND THURSDAY
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN,
LARGELY BETWEEN 9% TO 15%, BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AT 5
TO 10 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY REACH INTO THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES THOUGH. REGARDLESS,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A QUASI-ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN US ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, LIKELY AT LEAST INITIALLY IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8% IN THE WEST TO 10-20% IN THE
EAST. HOWEVER, WINDS ONCE AGAIN DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE, WHICH FAVORS MORE OF AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY THAN
CRITICAL. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING A COLD FRONT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. THE GFS, ECMWF, EC-AIFS, AND NEARLY HALF
OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHILE THE 12KM NAM, AI-GFS, AND THE
OTHER HALF OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS KEEP THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH, AND IN THE INSTANCE OF THE NAM AND AI-GFS, WASHES OUT THE
FRONT WITHOUT EVER MAKING IT TO THE PANHANDLES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES NOT SEEING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, NOT TOO
IMPRESSED AT THIS TIME.
A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THE LOW DEEPENING TO 990MB-995MB, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A SUB-990MB LOW. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES,
AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS TOWARD
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGING FROM 50-60 MPH, WITH THE AVERAGE
BEING AROUND 45-55 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THE PANHANDLES WILL BE IN THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH PROMOTES
SUBSIDENCE. THE MEAN WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ALONE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR 45-55 MPH WIND GUSTS, BUT OWING TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND
ANY KIND OF LOCALIZED ROBUST MIXING, THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20-50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES,
AND A 10-30% CHANCE TO EXCEED 60 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY TO COVER THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS, BUT A HIGH
WIND PRODUCT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE WINDS TREND UPWARD
SOME. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE DRY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MINIMUM
RH RANGING FROM 9% TO 13% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO 10% TO 17% IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL AMONGST SOME ENSEMBLES FOR A CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT THERE IS A SOLID
SIGNAL FOR DRY AIR ALOFT TO BE MOVING INTO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THEREFORE, AM NOT SOLD AT ALL ON THE PROSPECT FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY JUST BE VIRGA ANYWAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT THAT CHANGES THE WINDS TO
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS DON'T EVEN LOOK BREEZY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE
NORM LATELY, BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, BUT IT IS STILL A FAR WAY OUT
AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 15-25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH GUYMON WHICH
WILL CHANGE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DUE TO 20-30 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CHANGE WINDS TO NORTHERLY, BUT WINDS WILL BE 5-15 MPH.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. POOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 8%
TO 15% ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, WITH 10-20% IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH ARE
FORECAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SET UP OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHICH MAKES THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, HIGH-
END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANGE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AT
10-20 MPH.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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