534
FXUS64 KAMA 231758
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1258 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
SOUTH OF THE SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT.
- SUNDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH
A 20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF NEEDING WIND HEADLINES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TODAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY COME INTO THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES WHERE IT HAS STALLED. GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON THE FRONT MAY BACK UP A BIT STILL IMPACTING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK PANHANDLE. MEANING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY
STILL MATERIALIZE IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK PANHANDLE.
AN H7 TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. IT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LEESIDE LOW
THAT WHERE H7 WINDS WILL BE REACHING NEAR 40 KTS. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH HIGHER GUST ARE EXPECTED, UP TO 40 TO 45
MPH. WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS MUCH LOWER TDS ARE
MOVING IN DROPPING RH VALUES WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT.
TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH, WINDS WILL DECREASE, AND TDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
TO BE HELD BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INSTEAD OF THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED TODAY. UNDER THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND
STILL SOMEWHAT LOW TDS RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
8 PERCENT, MAINLY IN THE WEST. THEREFORE, EXPECTING SOME RH DRIVEN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SE THEN S LATER IN THE EVENING AND
STARTING TO PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 15 MPH, MAYBE HIGHER. AS THE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO BACK INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES TO SEE RH
RECOVERIES NEAR 80-100 PERCENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 90
IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHWEST STILL STAYING
BEHIND IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE. RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR EASTERN OK PANHANDLE WHILE
THE DRYLINE MIXES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT TO ONLY HAVING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS ALOFT REMAIN QUASI-ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION PUTS THE FA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR SUNDAY. AN H5 JET
UPWARDS OF 70 KTS IS PROGGED TO REACH FROM SE AZ UP THROUGH NM INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THE PANHANDLES HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL UNDER THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION ALLOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE TO BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THE NBM PROBABILITIES THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PANHANDLES HAVE A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED
60 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT DAY TO WATCH FOR A PARTICULARLY
HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 58 MPH COMBINED
WITH DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
THE ONLY REGION OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES TO SEE ANY POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SAT NIGHT AND THE OK
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN THE OK PANHANDLE, AS MODELS DO DEPICT
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH IN KS. NOT TO GET HOPES UP THE
DRY STREAK MAY COME TO AN END GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NBM IS
GIVING SOME WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE FA WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND ANYTHING CAN CHANGE WITH THIS
PERSISTENCE THE FA HAS SEEN WITH PAST SYSTEMS ENDING UP TAKING A
LESS THAN FAVORABLE TRACK TO BRING PRECIPITATION THIS
WINTER/SPRING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HOLD WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH FOR KDHT AND
KGUY. HOWEVER, KAMA SHOULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
UNTIL THIS FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR KAMA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AROUND 25
KTS GUSTING TO 39 KTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY EXCEED
40 KTS FOR KAMA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH RH VALUES FALLING WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 15 MPH LIMITING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL UNTIL SUNDAY.
SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE STRONG WINDS ALOFT FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS CREATE CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THERE CURRENTLY
REMAINS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO REACH 60 MPH IN THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10
PERCENT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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