354
FXUS64 KAMA 301146
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH, FOR TODAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPARSE. BETTER CHANCES
EXIST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
40S AND 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- LOOKING AT A FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE EXPANDING FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NORTHEAST.
OUT WEST IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM CA TO MT. OUT IN THE
PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CA IS A CUTOFF LOW. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RAIN STARTING AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE TODAY, THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE LIKELY TO SEE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN BETTER
LIFT AND MOISTURE ENTER THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE THIS CUTOFF LOW
COMING ON LAND AND MERGING BACK WITH THE TROUGH OUT WEST TO BRING
BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. FOR NOW SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AS OF THIS WRITING, WITH A STREAM OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN AZ/NM INTO WEST TEXAS,
MAINLY IMPACTING LUBBOCK TO MIDLAND AREA AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOWS EVOLVE, AND START TO IMPACT MORE OF
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THANKS TO SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING OUT OF
THE EAST (UPSLOPING) AND LESS SUNLIGHT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. TOMORROW, WITH THE INCREASING
RAIN ACTIVITY AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S
TO THE WEST AND UPPER 50S TO THE EAST. BY FRIDAY EVENING RAIN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AND THE SKY IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS CLEARING ALONG WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF WILL HELP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME LOWER TDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DRIVE A DROP
OFF IN TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ON THE REBOUND. VERY LITTLE POPS EXIST IN THE LONG TERM. BUT MAY SEE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES IF
SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE RIDGE OCCUR. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACH BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY. THOSE 80S MAY LAST INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL FRONT ON WED KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN A BIT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS TO START, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
MVFR IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
WE WILL GO IFR GIVEN THE CONTINUED TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTH, KAMA SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS AS THAT IS STILL WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
OCCUR WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE MAINLY OUT OF
THE EAST.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...89
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