826
FXUS64 KAMA 010451
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1151 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES. FROST HAS BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN AS CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE MAIN MESSAGE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND DECREASING
POPS AND QPF TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE TRAJECTORY AND BETTER
DYNAMICS OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD. SO
MUCH SO, THAT IT WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE AREA UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE
RAINFALL OVER 0.5" IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES ARE STILL MOST FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE AREA DUE TO SHOWERS LIFTING AND MOVING OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF QPF CONTINUES TO FALL
LOWER WITH EACH NEW RUN OF THE CAMS. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY LACKLUSTER LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E PROFILES IN OUR
AREA. THETA-E VALUES ARE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES IN THE 50S TODAY.
AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT, WINDS IN THE REGION WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT PERIOD.
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST, REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME CAVEATS ON
WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL REACH FREEZING CONDITIONS. FORECAST
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO THE MOISTURE EXPECTED. IF WE MANAGE TO OVER PERFORM
ON PRECIPITATION OR CLOUD COVERAGE LINGERS TOO LONG, TEMPERATURES
MAY ONLY GET DOWN TO THE MID 30S. GIVEN THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
FROST IS THE MAIN HAZARD SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL STILL MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH HAZARDS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME, SINCE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE
STABILIZING TO A WARMER TEMPERATURE. PRODUCT ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DOWN THE LINE FOR THESE REASONS.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY, WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AS MENTIONED. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND TO THE 70S AREAWIDE AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL STAY MOSTLY
SUNNY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY ARE
VERY LOW FOR OUR FA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN OVER
THE PANHANDLE REGION FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO SETTLE, AS A LARGE SCALE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CANADA IS ALSO
FORECAST TO ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY, BUT
THEY WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY. AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, HIGH WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER ONCE WARM AIR IS REINTRODUCED ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE TIME FRAME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY.
TODAY'S RAIN TOTALS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON FUEL QUALITY WILL BE
DRIVING FACTORS THAT COULD MITIGATE OR ALLOW FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ENSURE PLACES DRY OUT ON THOSE DAYS, BUT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO HINDER FIRE WEATHER,
DEFIANTLY SO IF WE CAN GET SOME GOOD RAIN TODAY. (BUT PROBABLY
NOT...) CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THAT TIME
FRAME.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DECIPHERING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE. CURRENTLY, THE HIGH POPS ARE
PLACED IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SHOW UP, ALONG WITH PROSPECTS OF RAIN. THIS TAF PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MESSY ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. KDHT HAS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, KAMA AND
KGUY MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF
LOWERED CIGS AND VIS DUE TO THIS SYSTEM COMING OVER THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE HERE
AND THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO MAYBE 15 KTS THROUGH 12Z BEFORE THEY FALL OFF AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...03
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