551
FXUS64 KAMA 020453
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH RELATIVELY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGER FORCING AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES, THOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 10% OR LESS CHANCE
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS AND A SUNNY
SKY.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY, AND
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. IN
RESPONSE, WE'LL SEE A RIDGE BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
GOING INTO MONDAY, A TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING DOWNSTREAM. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS OR THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
THROUGHOUT MONDAY. A STEEP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE THOSE THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE
LOW WILL STEEP CALMER WINDS. WIDESPREAD 80S TO LOW-90S HIGHS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL STREAM ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE; CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT VIRGA THAT COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN, BUT THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MARCH EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS FEATURE, CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY. THERE ARE MANY VARYING SCENARIOS REGARDING THE SPEED,
TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THE TWO RELEVANT TROUGHS WHICH GREATLY
DECREASES CONFIDENCE ON ALL ASPECTS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
(I.E., TIMING, AMOUNTS, LOCATION OF GREATEST AND LEAST AMOUNTS).
THERE IS ALSO A GLARING RED FLAG IN THIS SETUP: HINTS OF A DRY
SLOT. OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG NEGATIVE
700MB THETA-E ADVECTION INTO AN AREA WHERE THE MODEL IS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND AGAIN WHERE MODELS WILL TRY
TO DO THIS, BUT WE ULTIMATELY SEE NOTHING HAPPEN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS 15-40% POPS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND 40-80% IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS LIKELY TOO BROAD BRUSHED, AND WE SHOULD ULTIMATELY SEE A
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN LIKELY POPS AND LOW TO NO POPS. HOWEVER,
WHERE THIS GRADIENT ENDS UP WILL DEPEND ON THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVING AROUND THE TROUGHS AS THE DRY SLOT WILL
SHIFT WITH IT. FOR NOW, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NEAR THE LOW AS THAT IS WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING AND
MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE. CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, NEAR THE
LOW, AS THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ANOMALOUSLY COOL.
IN SHORT, THERE ARE CERTAINLY FAILURE MODES FOR THIS SETUP WHERE WE
COULD SEE POPS QUICKLY DECREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GIVEN
THE WAY THAT THIS YEAR HAS GONE, WON'T BE SURPRISED IF THE DRY SLOT
ENDS UP OVER THE PANHANDLES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO GETS SOME POTENTIALLY
BENEFICIAL RAIN. AGAIN, IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE TRACK OF
THE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT THE DRY SLOT WITH IT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER-60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE SOUTH. RAIN COULD STILL
LINGER IN THE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME AS DRY AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTING INTO THE PANHANDLES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
VARIATIONS OF THE SPEED OF THE TROUGHS. GENERALLY, THOUGH, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE 80S BY FRIDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, AND AT TIMES VARIABLE AT
5 KTS OR LESS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001>004-006-
007-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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