018
FXUS64 KAMA 022301
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
601 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD CREATE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AFTER FANTASTIC WEATHER TODAY, MOSTLY INCONSEQUENTIAL WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A BROAD PERTURBATION
SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BE DISPLACED TOMORROW BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH WILL KICK OFF A WARMING TREND TO START
THE WEEK. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S, WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION (RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS). BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN THIS DRIER AIR,
SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SHOWING UP AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO THE 40S AND 50S THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIDING MORE SOLIDLY ATOP THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY, FURTHER PROMOTING THE EARLY WEEK WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO
CLIMBING 850MB TEMPS AND DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING
MOSTLY AROUND 30-35 MPH. DRY AIR SHOULD BE REINFORCED, WITH YET
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER A NOTABLE COOL DOWN
BEHIND COLD FRONTS TUE-WED, WARM AIR IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK WHEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THAT COOL DOWN THOUGH, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE
40-70% PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO STAY BELOW 50 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER NEAR FREEZING MORNING LOWS.
MOISTURE OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN ANNOYINGLY HARD TO COME BY FOR THE
PANHANDLES, BUT A LUCKY FEW MAY JUST FIND SOME BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTS SLATED TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS
INITIAL FRONT, A POOL OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE UTILIZED FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ARRIVE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS WOULD
LIKELY SUPPORT ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES ARE BEST FAVORED FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY (40-70% POPS),
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY- TUE NIGHT. THERE ARE DOUBTS ON HOW LONG AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MOISTURE WILL RESIDE, LEADING TO MUCH LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES (10-40%). TO
REITERATE, ANY AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN HAVE MUCH HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR TOTALS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 0.1". BASED ON NEAR
FREEZING SFC TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES EARLY WED MORNING,
WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WINTRY PRECIP BRIEFLY MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN, BUT ACCUMULATING FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
HARREL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AT 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...52
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