348
FXUS64 KAMA 030414
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL HANGING IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THE SHORTWAVE IN NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT, THEN WE WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING TO A STEEPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT LOOK LOOK QUITE
WEAK, THUS REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR A TRULY BREEZY DAY. THE DRY,
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER-70S TO 80S
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EAST BY
MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD. A DEEPER SURFACE LOW, LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000MB, IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOPING EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES GETS SPARED THE
WIND OWING TO BEING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THERE'S A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
MONDAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WINDS WILL AT LEAST START MONDAY NIGHT WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH, BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S
WHILE THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL SEE MORE SEASONABLE LOWS
IN THE 40S.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
TO START TUESDAY, THERE'LL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AND A LARGER TROUGH OVER CANADA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. THE
FORMER TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD WHILE THE LATTER WILL BE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING, A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BE ADVECTING TOWARD THE PANHANDLES AS
A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES IN. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER, THEN STALL OR
POSSIBLY EVEN RETREAT ONCE IT REACHES THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO TUESDAY'S HIGHS. THE LOWEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT MAY NOT PASS THROUGH
UNTIL AFTER THE MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY
STRETCHES FROM NEAR DALHART TO AMARILLO TO COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY
WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME AROUND 18Z, BUT MORESO
AFTER 7 PM TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER FORCING BEGINS TO ARRIVE. THE
STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN THE 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
(CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST FORCING, BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE), AND
LOWER IN THE SOUTH (WEAKER FORCING, MORE QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE).
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL REGARDING A DRY SLOT THAT WILL WORK INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE SPEED
AND TRACK OF BOTH SYSTEMS WHICH IS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTIES IN ALL ASPECTS OF THE RAIN POTENTIAL. WHEREVER THIS
DRY SLOT COMES THROUGH, IT WILL LIKELY CUT OFF RAINFALL FROM EARLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGN THAT SOME
RESIDUAL PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD WORK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THAT CURRENTLY CARRIES
ONLY A LOW CHANCE. OVERALL, AGAIN, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE, WHILE IT MAY BE BETTER FOR THE REST OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO NOT EXPECT MUCH (IF ANY) RAIN.
ONE ASPECT THAT DOES CARRY SOME CERTAINTY IS THE IDEA THAT THIS IS
LIKELY TO NOT BE A SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF RAIN; THE
MEDIAN QPF ON THE NBM RANGES FROM 0.05" TO 0.30" IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES WITH LESS THAN 0.05" ELSEWHERE. THE 90TH PERCENTILE QPF
("REASONABLE WORST CASE") HAS UP TO 0.70" IN THE NORTH AND 0.05" TO
0.25" FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE NORTHEAST. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THE 90TH PERCENTILE QPF IS NOT SOMETHING WE SHOULD
EXPECT TO HAPPEN ON A LARGE SCALE, BUT RATHER A MORE LOCALIZED SCALE
(E.G., "A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE AS MUCH AS...").
OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MUCH UP-IN-THE-AIR
AS WELL. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE, THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS; BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-40.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AND WE'LL
SEE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S.
ALTHOUGH IT'S A FAR WAY OUT, THERE IS RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THERE'LL BE A CUT-
OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US ON FRIDAY. THIS WON'T IMPACT
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS IT'LL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOW-90S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAY IF ENOUGH MOISTURE LOW-
LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MEANDERS EAST.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AT 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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