725
FXUS64 KAMA 031829
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY-TONIGHT'S WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STAY
RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. MODELS
SHOW 500MB RIDGING TO OUR WEST SLIDING MORE SOLIDLY ATOP THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY, FURTHER PROMOTING AN EARLY WEEK WARM UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO DUE IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIR SHOULD BE REINFORCED,
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A
CLOSED LOW ENCROACHING UPON THE PACIFIC COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY THE
PLAINS RIDGE, SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BEGIN TO AID
ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CEASE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY, WITH A SHALLOW POOL
OF MODESTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. WEAK DISTURBANCES
OF LIFT WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SYSTEM, HELPING TO
GENERATE ROUNDS OF SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS EQUATES TO 40-70%
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES TUESDAY - TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN TANDEM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES, AND PERPETUATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, IF MOISTURE MANAGES TO STICK AROUND
BEHIND FRONT NUMBER TWO (30-50% POPS). GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THIS MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
THIS AGAIN WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL, WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIXING IN FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WED MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE
SOUTH TO 50S AND 60S IN THE NORTH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER IN THE 30S & 40S, ESPECIALLY BY THU MORNING WHEN FREEZING
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS, DRY AIR RETURNS AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL GREATLY
FAVOR ANOTHER WARM STRETCH WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN ANNOYINGLY HARD
TO COME BY, ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE HINTING AT RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL WITH A SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO TAKE AN UNDESIRABLE TRACK
RELATIVE TO THE PANHANDLES, WHICH WOULD MAKE RAIN CHANCES HARD TO
BELIEVE AT THIS TIME.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS AT TIMES
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MENTIONS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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