508
FXUS64 KAMA 041730
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. BRIEF, LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A SURFACE LOW, PRESENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AS OF 8:30 PM, WILL
STAY IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH OR
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL PUMP A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY, WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LOW WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS. THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO MID-90S. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A DRY THUNDERSTORM
WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT WHILE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
REACHED ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IS AROUND 15% OR LESS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT, IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD STAY IN THE 70S UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, THOUGH IT MAY
RETREAT SOME THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID-LEVEL FORCING AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TUESDAY, WITH
THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES FAVORED TO SEE THE GREATER QUALITY
OF BOTH. THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUND OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID-EVENING.
DRY AIR ALOFT IS FAVORED TO ADVECT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND
PERHAPS EVEN A PART OF THE SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AFTER 12 AM
WEDNESDAY, LIKELY TO END ANY ONGOING RAIN FOR THAT AREA. MEANWHILE,
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD PERSIST OVER A PORTION OF THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
SUGGESTING RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
THAT AREA.
OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF A POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, RAIN RATES
WILL BE LIGHT, THUS, OVERALL QPF THROUGH THIS SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN 0.20".
FROST CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES IF
THE CURRENTLY FORECAST 10-15 MPH WINDS END UP BEING WEAKER.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH,
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES, WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD DRAW MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH AS MID-LEVEL FORCING
ARRIVES. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. WITH NO MEANINGFUL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT RAIN.
THERE IS SOME HINT AMONG MESOSCALE MODELS, CAMS, AND SOME GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT THE FRONT COULD RETREAT SOME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE TO
WARM INTO THE 70S. MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES MAY
ULTIMATELY SEE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND WE COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN IN
THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA, AND SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES MAY
EVEN SEE A HARD FREEZE.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
JOGS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 70S, THEN UPPER-70S TO 80S
ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED TO DIP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
US INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO
BRING RAIN TO THE PANHANDLES, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON MOISTURE RETURN.
GIVEN THE WAY THAT THIS SPRING HAS GONE, AM VERY RELUCTANT TO
BELIEVE IT AT THIS POINT. IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING THOUGH.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MODEL SIGNALS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS MOVING
INTO KDHT AND KGUY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MAKE MENTIONS IN THE CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE. CHANGED MAY BE MADE IN FUTURE FORECASTS THAT ADD IN THIS
FEATURE.
STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55
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