438
FXUS64 KAMA 051806
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
106 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE PRESENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 90S BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, BOTH OBSERVATIONS STATIONS AND RADAR ARE
DEPICTING THE FIRST OF OUR TWO COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SOME WEAK SHOWERS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING IT
IN. AT THIS TIME THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
WITH CAMS ONLY SEEING SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN AT BEST. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY AS THE FRONT MOVE IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR
THE PANHANDLES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR
DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S FOR THE NORTH WITH THE
FAR SOUTH STILL HANGING ON TO THE 70S. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME
THAT LATEST CAM AGREEMENT SEES AN INCOMING SHORT-WAVE PUSH IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHORT-WAVE’S ARRIVAL
WILL BE THE START OF OUR POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE TROUGH
FULLY MOVES IN LATER THAT NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, PRESENT CAMS HAVE
ONCE AGAIN BEEN ON A DOWNWARDS TREND FOR OUR SHOWERS ACTIVITY WITH
MOST CONDENSING ACTIVITY TO OUR FAR NORTHWEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL TO
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AS MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON THANKS IN PART TO
A SECONDARY WAVE AND FRONT MOVING IN ALONGSIDE A DECENT COLD AIR
MASS. FROM HERE ACTIVITY WILL GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING,
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH, AS THIS POTENT AIR MASS WILL START DECREASE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING AS WE APPROACH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW TO THE POSSIBILITY, ANY LINGER
SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THEY
TRANSITION TO SNOW. REGARDLESS, THE PRESENT TREND WITH THESE
SHOWERS, MUCH LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF CHANCES, HAS
BEEN ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS IT
STANDS, LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SEEN OUR HIGHEST AMOUNTS HOLD IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST AT ONLY AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5” WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY
DROPPING TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AS YOU GO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO TREND AS OUR COLDEST MORNING WITH
MOST MODELS SEEING THE SECONDARY FRONT FORCING A POTENT COLD AIR
MASS INTO THE PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY LATEST MODELS DO SEE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES TO BE NEAR OR AT
FREEZING WITH THE FAR NORTH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING THE BY TIME THE SUN RISES. WHAT MAY HINDER THIS HOWEVER,
WILL BE IF THERE IS ANY LINGER SHOWERS OR HEAVY CLOUD COVER THAT
MORNING AS THE LINGER MOISTURE CAN KEEP US A BIT MORE TEMPERATE.
STILL IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS FOR THAT AREA
CLEARING OUR AND ACHIEVING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THE
COLD MORNING, THE PANHANDLES WILL LOOK TO BE ONCE AGAIN ON THE DRY
AND WARM TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY QUICKLY JUMPING INTO
THE 70S. THIS TREND WILL LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S THAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MORE ACTIVITY COULD LOOK TO FOLLOW SUNDAY AS MODEL
AGREEMENT SEES ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO WEST TEXAS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SAY MUCH
MORE AS IMPACTS FROM A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON ITS FINAL PLACEMENT OF LOW AS IT MOVES IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT KAMA AND KDHT AT THE START OF THIS 18Z
TAF PERIOD. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT
THESE SITES; HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO KGUY. SOME
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT KDHT AND KGUY LATER THIS EVENING,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL ALREADY BE MVFR AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WORSEN
DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KAMA TONIGHT AS
WELL, BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AT ALL SITES TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR, AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KGUY, ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TILL THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY,
BUT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY BY
TOMORROW.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ001>004-006.
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55
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