644
FXUS64 KAMA 060453
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
WEDNESDAY.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, REACHING AS LOW AS THE MID-20'S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIGHT RAINFALL COULD LINGER IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OR BECOME ISOLATED BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY IN THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE), THE PRIMARY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL ARE IN THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES, WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN
0.2" WILL LIKELY BE CONSTRAINED TO THE FAR NORTH CWA. IN THE FAR NW
CWA SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS DEPENDS ON IF
TEMPERATURE FALLS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING LINE UP INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN
CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY SURPASSING FREEZING INTO THE HIGH 20'S
ON THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR CIMARRON AND DALLAM COUNTIES HAVE PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING TO
BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE HAS PROMPTED THE FREEZE WATCH TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID-40'S IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO THE
LOW-70'S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA, WARMING BACK UP ON THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH-60'S TO LOW-70'S.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE 90'S FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY
SATURDAY. THIS IS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70'S AND 80'S.
AFTER SUNDAY HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CREATE SEASONALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS FROM SW TO N AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AS OF THIS EVENING, LATEST RADAR HAS SEEN SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING
IN FROM OUR WEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR KDHT AND KGUY TO SEE IMPACTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY SO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTENED HAS STAYED LOW
WITH NO CURRENT MENTION IN THE PRESENT TAF PACKAGE. AS FOR KAMA,
PRESENT CAMS HAVE IMPACTS FROM SHOWERS ARE VERY MINOR TO NON-
EXISTENT WITH CONCERNS MORE FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THESE CIGS WILL ALSO APPLY TO OUR
NORTHERN TAFS SITE, THROUGH CONFIDENCE IN THEM MAY WAVER SHOULD
SHOWERS HOLD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ001.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ002>004-006.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ001.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11
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