241
FXUS64 KAMA 061748
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES MINUS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST MAY LEAD TO MINOR
RAIN ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON A FEW DAYS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS ALMOST
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE THE SUN
TODAY AS THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. HIGHS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK
PANHANDLE MAY ONLY STAY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT FORM TODAY ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF ANY SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
WARM. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH OR
LESS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER ON TODAY.
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL
AID IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORDS AND SOME CLIMATE
SITES MAY EVEN BREAK THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT. FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THE FROST
CONDITIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY WILL DEPEND UPON CLOUD COVER
CLEARING OUT BY SUNRISE. AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING, THE WIND
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 70S.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH A WEAK FRONT MAY BE
SITTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO POTENTIALLY 90 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY,
BUT SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER WITH MORE AREAS REACHING THE LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
BEING THE COOLEST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES, AN H500 SHORTWAVE MAY BE WELL TIMED TO
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS OR POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF THAT SMALL RAIN CHANCE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SET UP NEXT WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK ON TUESDAY.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE AT
THE TERMINALS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KAMA, WHERE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER KAMA AND WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH ONLY LIMITED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS EXPECTED. THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST
BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUT OF THE NORTH TO WEST
TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ001>004-006.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ005-007>013-
016-017-317.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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