532
FXUS64 KAMA 201127
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE DAILY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
SOME FOG OR MIST MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
H500 TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TODAY, H500
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND CREATE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE STRONGEST FURTHER SOUTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS, THOUGH
SUFFICIENT THETA-E FOR CONVECTION SHOULD EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BASED OFF TUESDAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR
CWA. TOMORROW, THETA-E PROFILES REMAIN GENERALLY HIGH ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE WIND FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
MEASURABLE QPF REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL REMAINS FORECAST TO OCCUR
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
00Z CAMS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAN OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO. CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT THAT POCKETS OF SUBSIDENCE WILL
EXIST AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. THIS WILL LEND TO A
MORE SCATTERED THAN WIDESPREAD STORM MODE; AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE, NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL RECEIVE EQUIVALENT RAINFALL TOTALS.
SBCIN WILL STILL BE PRESENT BY THE TIME STORMS ARRIVE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN SBCAPE ACROSS THE
AREA; THEREFORE, ELEVATED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND INHIBITION
WILL BE OVERCOME SINCE PARCELS WILL BE LIFTING ABOVE THE CAP.
STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE MAIN WEAKNESS TO THIS SETUP
IS THE LACK OF QUALITY MLCAPE. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH VALUES OVER 1,000 J/KG
POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS ZONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY, WITH LITTLE BREAKS FROM COVER TO ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL DAY
TIME HEATING. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS
THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME LOWER 50S LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THIS PERIOD. MESOSCALE PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR NIGHT TIME CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE. MIST
AND SOME FOG MAY ALSO BE PRESENT ALONGSIDE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN
THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF CLEARING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S AND CREATE ENOUGH HEATING FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THE
MOST RECENT CAMS DISPLAY THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS THE MOVE EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES. STORMS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SURFACE BASED WITH
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1,500 - 2,000 J/KG. THE HIGHEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT FAVORABLE
SBCAPE AND SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A
THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT TO EXIST FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR
NORTHWEST ZONE.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RETURN TO AVERAGE VALUES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY TO SUNDAY EXPECT 70S TO LOWER
80S. MONDAY AND BEYOND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WE RETURN TO THE MID
80S. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXITS IN THE
EAST ON FRIDAY; HOWEVER, CONCERNS REMAIN PREVALENT ON DRYLINE
PLACEMENT AND HOW DIFFUSE IT MAY BE BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE NBM REMAIN SET ON +50% POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY SEE A
DECLINE FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. STARTING AROUND
14Z FOR KAMA AND CLOSER TO 21-00Z THURSDAY FOR KDHT/KGUY, MVFR/IFR
CIGS EXPECTED AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED TO KAMA AT 21Z FOR TSRA
POTENTIAL. VCSH CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY FOR KDHT/KGUY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z THURSDAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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