933
FXUS64 KAMA 202349
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. VERY LOW (<5%) CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING MAIN THREAT.
- FURTHER MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
ALL HAZARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLES, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
TODAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM LIES TO THE WEST
STILL MAINLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS POSITION WILL CAUSE A
BROADLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FLOW HAS BROUGHT THE PANHANDLES GULF MOISTURE THAT
WAS SITTING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NM. THIS IS MOST
PROMINENTLY SEEN IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT HAS ACTIVELY
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS CLOUD BANK IS IMPORTANT
FOR TODAY'S WEATHER AS IT IS ACTING AS A CAP FOR THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS SPLITTING OFF A SMALL TROUGH THAT
IS TRAVELING NORTHEAST PASSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE MID
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES PROVIDING SOME LIFT.
FURTHER LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS
CAUSING BROAD SCALE DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL MOST
LIKELY PROVIDE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MID LEVEL CAPE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF AVAILABLE CAPE. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS WOULD FORM IN THE WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OWING TO THE LOW CLOUD DECK CAUSING STABLE AND
COOLER SURFACE CONDITIONS THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVENT MOST OF
IT FROM BEING UTILIZED. STILL SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS
LOOKS LIKELY WITH CLUSTER TO LINES BEING THE MOST PROBABLE STORM
MODES. THIS INTRODUCES A VERY LOW (5%) CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES IS THE MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE THESE STRONGER STORMS IF ANY FORM AT ALL. A WILDCARD
WOULD BE IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK DOES NOT SUPPRESS THE
ENVIRONMENT AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. IF THIS IS THE CASE
THEN IT IS POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND MUCH
STRONGER OVERALL. SUCH A STORM WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ALL HAZARDS. STILL THIS IS A REMOTE CHANCE (<1%) BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAKER
CLOUD BANK. THESE STORMS WILL EITHER PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA OR
COME TO AN END BY THE LATER EVENING HOURS WRAPPING UP THIS ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING A LOW
LEVEL BANK OF CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS THE WHOLE OF THE PANHANDLES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM UNDER THE
CLOUD BANK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOW CLOUD BANK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
THURSDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD LEADING TO THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL START OFF
WITH THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANK DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED. THE SURFACE BASED ENVIRONMENT
OPENS UP HIGHER LEVELS OF CAPE WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. MORE
CRUCIALLY IT ALSO OPENS UP SHEAR OF 20 TO 40 KT WHICH CAN LEAD TO
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER WITH
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ALL HAZARDS OF TORNADOS,
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY SEVERE STORM THAT FORMS.
THE BIG ITEM HOLDING BACK THE CHANCES FOR THE STORM FORMATION IS
THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST LESSENING ITS INFLUENCE WHILE THE WEATHER SYSTEM KEEPS
THE MOST OF ITS FORCING EASTWARD OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO LESSEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO FORM ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS, AND STRONGER
STORMS, WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THERE THE
OVERALL FORCING IS BETTER. THE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THEY WOULD
THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DEPARTING OR DISSIPATING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD LEAVE GENERALLY CALM WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY COOLER DAYS BUT WITH A
GENERAL WARMING TREND. THIS WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY
INCREASING TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
FRIDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE PANHANDLES AS IT MAIN AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF SETTING UP A DRY LINE SCENARIO WITHIN THE
PANHANDLES. THE BIG QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THIS DRY LINE WILL
SETUP AS THIS WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES IS IMPACTED
BY THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE DRY LINE
TO SETUP IS STARTING IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING WITH
IT MIGRATING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS DRY
LINE WOULD ACT AS THE FORCING MECHANISM TO SPAWN RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE
WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THAT CAN BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO SUPERCELLS. IF SUPERCELLS FORM THEY WOULD SUPPORT
ALL HAZARDS OF TORNADOS, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SATURDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION BUT STILL
HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE REMAINS THE THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING MUCH LOWER BUT
NOT ZERO CHANCE FOR FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MID NEXT WEEK THERE IS BUILDING CONFIDENCE THAT A FURTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SPRING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS NOW
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TRANSITIONED EAST. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, ALLOWING MVFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EVEN IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT KAMA AND KGUY LATER TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
MIST AND DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, BUT FOG IS LESS
LIKELY AS LONG AS CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGHER THAN 500 FT AGL.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL DISPERSE SOME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN NEAR THE
END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...55
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