360
FXUS64 KAMA 211150
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHILE
CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES TUESDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
BACK-TO-BACK DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER HEADLINES CARRY
ON THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS WE HEAD INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THIS MORNING, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT PREVAILS AT THE LOW LEVELS.
AREAS WITH DEEPER QUALITY MOISTURE PROFILES, NAMELY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WILL BE IN PLAY FOR WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM THE TIME OF THIS WRITING TILL THE MID MORNING HOURS.
(ENDING AROUND 8-10 AM.) CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP FROM EXISTING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF SE
COLORADO. ELSEWHERE, LOW CLOUDS AND MIST ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
INSTEAD OF RAINFALL. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG BANKS COULD ARISE
AROUND VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN THE CWA, SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS AT 100% MORE CONSISTENTLY
SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND RATHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE, IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL TONIGHT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE DISPERSED.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE FA. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE
AS CLOUD COVER ERODES IN THE WEST. WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CREATES ISSUES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION; HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE AN AVAILABLE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THETA-E PROFILES IN THE PANHANDLES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY EXIT NEW MEXICO. YET,
RECENT CAMS ARE HONING IN ON THE NOTION THAT THERE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING SUBSIDENCE AND CIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE FAVORED TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF OUR CENTRAL ZONE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLE
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA. SO, CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEST IN THAT AREA, AS LONG AS STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER. 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. NEVERTHELESS, A CONDITIONAL TORNADO
THREAT ALSO EXISTS AS SURFACE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW LEVEL SRH INCREASES SHARPLY. THE CAVEATS ARE CONTINGENT ON
STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AS MLCIN INCREASES, WHILE STAYING SURFACE
BASED. THE CURRENT STORM MODE SUGGEST LINEAR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IF A TORNADO CAN FORM, IT SHOULD BE BRIEF
AND LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
BY FRIDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED IN SE COLORADO WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. AS THIS
FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL OVER TAKE THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF CONVERGENCE
ALONGSIDE WEAK H500 FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF A TIGHT
DRY LINE AND BROAD SCALE MOISTURE, ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH. SUPERCELL PARAMETERS ARE BEST ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT,
AS LONG AS CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. ANOTHER FACTOR WORTH NOTING
IS THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. A FASTER FRONT MAY TAKE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH, SO TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO
SEE IF POPS CAN HOLD IN OUR AREA. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ALL STORM MODES.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY NOT MANIFEST UNTIL THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THAT EVENING. IF ANY SUPERCELL
MAINTAINS TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS WHERE THESE MESOSCALE
PARAMETERS ARE REALIZED, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A GENERALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PULLED NORTHEAST, A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
LATE IN THE CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD, OUR NEXT H500 LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE TROUGHING REGIME
ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
GLOBAL MODELS STILL SEEM AGRESSIVE WITH QPF ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY, WHILE LREF ENSEMBLES SHOW MOVE CONSERVATIVE VALUES FOR 24
HOUR QPF. ENSEMBLE MEDIAN PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VALUES AROUND
0.9" FOR THE FA, WITH HIGHER PWATS IN THE EAST VERSUS THE WEST. EVEN
WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE AS EFFECTIVE AT
PRODUCING RAIN AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONVEY. STORMS WILL
REQUIRE HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE TO BECOME MORE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. NBM POPS SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR THE MOMENT AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED FOR SATURDAY. ONCE MORE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
INCORPORATED INTO SATURDAY'S FORECAST, POPS MAY DECREASE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT IS, IF THE STORM MODE SUGGESTS MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION INSTEAD OF IT BEING WIDESPREAD. SEMI-
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE ANTICIPATE TO RECEIVE A SLIGHT BREAK FROM
RAINFALL, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY INCREMENT INTO MORE
WIDESPREAD 80S. EVEN AS WE WARM UP AND DRY OUT A BIT, FAVORABLE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING
FIRE WEATHER AT BAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD, BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE
TRACK OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHO IS IMPACTED
BY RAINFALL, WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, AND HOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL UNFOLD.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, PRESENT SATELLITE WAS OBSERVING A DECK
OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WAS CREATING IFR TO LIFR CIGS FOR ALL OF THE
PRESENT TERMINALS. HERE KAMA THIS DECK IS ALSO HIDING A FOG BANK
THAT IS CURRENTLY HEAVY ENOUGH TO SEE VISIBILITY DROP BELOW 1
MILE. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE THIS FOG BANK TO LIFT OFF THE
TERMINAL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CLOUD DECKS LOOKING TO
RISE SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE MAKES
IT TO OUR AREA. AS THIS OCCURS POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WILL BE VERY MINOR. BY THIS
EVENING, PRESENT CAMS HAVE THE EXPECTED DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME CAMS SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY
FOCUSED AROUND KGUY, WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS YOU MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST. REGARDLESS POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE DURING THIS TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD THEY MOVE ACROSS A TERMINAL.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11
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