798
FXUS64 KAMA 212333
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THAT CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TODAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS SPREAD AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS MOISTURE IS TAKING THE FORM OF A LARGE
BANK OF LOW CLOUDS THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS THE WHOLE OF
THE PANHANDLES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BANK OF CLOUDS IS SLOWLY
RISING AND SCATTERING IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS BANK OF CLOUDS IS PROVIDING COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS WHICH IS LOWING THE CHANCE FOR THE LATER EXPECTED
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS HAVING GREATER IMPACT THAN
NORMAL AS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TODAY. SO THE
SUPPRESSION OF HEATING PLAYS HEAVILY INTO REDUCTION OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING FIRST IN THE WEST THIS AREA WILL HAVE LONGER
TO RECEIVE HEATING AND THUS BE MORE UNSTABLE COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. AS SUCH THE WESTERN PANHANDLES CAN DEVELOP
CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH THERE BEING THE CHANCE FOR
EVEN HIGHER CAPE. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL MOST LIKELY SEE MORE
MODEST CAPE VALUES OF 1250 TO 1750 J/KG. IF THE CLOUD BANK HOLDS
ON FOR LONGER THEN IT WOULD DIRECTLY LEAD TO LOWER CAPE VALUES
THUS HOLDING BACK LATER THUNDERSTORMS. BUT AS SAID EARLIER THERE
IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES TO
TRIGGER THE START OF THUNDERSTORMS. SO THIS MEANS THAT WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN EASILY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IT JUST CANNOT FORM
THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FIRST PLACE. STILL, THERE ARE SOME AREAS
THAT COULD PROVIDE FORCING TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THE
FIRST IS IN THE NW PANHANDLES WHERE SOME FORCING FROM THE WEATHER
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES THIS
AREA THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. IN THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SUBTLE WAVE
WILL PASS THROUGH PROVIDING THE FORCING TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. STILL IT IS QUESTIONABLE OF HOW FAR TO THE NORTH THIS WAVE
COULD PROVIDE FORCING TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING.VE WILL PASS
WITH IT BEING POSSIBLE FOR ITS CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LAST ONE IS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WHICH CAN ACT AS BOUNDARY THAT
CAN PROVIDE THE FORCING TO SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THEM PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THEY DEPART OF
DISSIPATE. FOR TODAY THERE IS SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES WITH IT RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 KT. THIS SHEAR COMBINED
WITH FORECASTED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. THIS INTRODUCES A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR SUCH STORMS IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST UNSTABLE. THE THREAT FOR
TORNADIC STORMS IS BEST IN THE NW PANHANDLES AS THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST SHEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF HAZARDS INCLUDING
TORNADOS, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE IF THEY IMPACT ANY OF THE
NUMEROUS RECENT BURNED AREAS FROM WILDFIRES AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE
FAR MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOWS THAN NORMAL.
GOING INTO TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANK WILL IN LARGE REFORM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. ONCE AGAIN FOG
TO LIGHT DRIZZLE CAN OCCUR UNDERNEATH THIS CLOUD BANK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST SETTING UP A SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. STILL AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL THEN BE COUNTERED BY ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW FEATURE SPINNING UP IN NM THAT WILL PASS INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS BRING A COMPLEX INTERACTION
FOR THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF
THE AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FIRST FRONT
WILL DICTATE HEAVILY HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORM. SO THE FURTHER SOUTH IT SINKS THE LESS LIKELY
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND LOW
FEATURE WILL ACT AS THE FORCING MECHANISM THAT WILL SPAWN THE
EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL LIKELY START THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON IN NM TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITION THE OLDER COLD FRONT INTO A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL SETUP A MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WILL THEN
PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINING PANHANDLES DEPARTING INTO OK
PROPER DURING BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT IT
WILL BE A MIXED BAG DEPENDING HEAVILY ON THE MORNING CLOUD COVER.
THE SOONER THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES THE HIGHER THE HEATING THAT
WILL TAKE PLACE AND THUS A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. RIGHT NOW
IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH A LESSER CHANCE
FOR HIGHER CAPE. SHEAR WILL BE TRICKIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT CAN PROVIDE LOCALLY HIGHER SHEAR
VALUES. FOR NOW BROADLY SPEAKING 20 TO 45 KT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SPOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP OPENING UP THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SINCE THIS EVENT SEEMS TO BE FORCED BY A SMALL SURFACE
LOW THIS MAKES IT MORE LIKELY FOR THE STORMS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLS TO LINEAR CONVECTION. STILL IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT
SUPERCELLS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MESO-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
THUS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR TORNADOS. HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE IF
THEY IMPACT ANY OF THE NUMEROUS RECENT BURNED AREAS FROM WILDFIRES
AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE FAR MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING OR DEBRIS
FLOWS THAN NORMAL. THIS WHOLE EVENT ON FRIDAY REMAINS VERY
COMPLICATED AND THUS IT IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM
MULTIPLE VARIABLES. SO TAKE THIS DAY WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AND
KEEP UP WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SATURDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES
WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS AND THEN EAST OF
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TO
EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THESE STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY FORM IN NM TO CO AND THEN PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE TIMING OF THE STORMS IS THEM
BEGINNING IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND ENDING OR DEPARTING DURING THE
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LESSER THREAT
FOR TORNADOS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF A DIRTY
RIDGE TO SIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING A
DECREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT A LOW
CHANCE FOR THESE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES.
GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS LIKELY TO
PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
FURTHER ROUNDS OF DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE WAY THE SYSTEM IS
SHAPING UP SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AN ACTIVE FIRST FEW HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES AS A LINE OF STORMS IN
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY BRING TSRA TO KDHT AND KGUY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST
GIVE LOWER CONFIDENCE TO KAMA, AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PROB30 AT
THE MOMENT. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS
MOVE THROUGH AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15 TO 18Z, IN
WHICH WE SHOULD RETURN VFR THEREAFTER. KAMA, DOES SHOW CONCERNS
OF PROLONGED -DZ FROM 9Z THROUGH 14Z. DON'T ANTICIPATED
VISIBILITY TO FALL BELOW A MILE AT ANY SITE AND GET FOG, BUT
THAT'S ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WHEN AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS, SO
CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE 09-15Z TIME PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89
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