023
FXUS64 KAMA 221132
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EACH DAY. MEDIUM CHANCE FRIDAY (LOW SATURDAY) FOR
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED ON
AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT, AND WILL LEAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE TONIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LEAVE A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES. BUT WE'LL START THE DAY WITHE LOW
CLOUDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS WE START TO HEAT UP AND
CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, A SUBTLE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ADDING A BIT MORE
FORCING TO ASSIST IN ANY LIFT. WILL NOTE THAT BOTH ELEVATED TO
SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS THERE'S ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE COOLING ABOVE 700MB WITH THAT WAVE THAT WE COULD
LIFT THE PARCEL AT 700MB EVEN IF WE DON'T GET ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4 PM
TIME FRAME, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER TO AROUND MIDNIGHT,
WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD. ML CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
WITH ABOUT 25-35KTS OF SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND
THREAT. STORMS SHOULD START OFF AS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF WINDS OP
TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL. BUT IN TIME WILL LIKELY
CONVERGE INTO AN MCS AS THE STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PANHANDLE, AND WILL BECOME MORE OF A WIND THREAT AT THAT
POINT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS STILL VERY LOW AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY
VALUES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.
SATURDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLAY. OVERALL, SIMILAR TRIGGERS WILL BE SET UP, DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, WITH SOME FORCING FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW, AND CAPE VALUES ARE MORE LIMITED IN THE 500-1500
J/KG RANGE. THE SEVERE THREAT REALLY DOES LOOK MARGINAL FOR
SATURDAY AS SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT STILL COULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT IS VERY MUCH NEEDED IN THE PANHANDLES. SHOWERS
AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING AN OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO LINGERING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE SETS UP JUST
EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT U JUST ENOUGH THAT WE
MIGHT PULL OFF SOME INVERTED V SETUPS FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS, AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH TO HELP
THOSE STORMS POP AS WELL AS THE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD 80S FOR THE MOST PART. MONDAY AFTERNOON A
SOMEWHAT NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS, NV IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN AZ AND THE NM AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS
OVER THE NM MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST LATE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS AS TO IF THEY WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLES OR END
AND LEAVE THE AREA RAIN FREE FOR THE NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOW DOWN AND TAKE EVEN MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT WHICH WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE STORMS
WILL FORM, AND WILL THE TIMING AND FORCING COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM
HEATING IN INSTABILITY. BUT OVERALL THE SHEAR ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE
AND WOULD EXPECT JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS, THAT COULD BE SLOW
MOVING AS WELL AS TRAINING AT TIMES, THAT COULD SUPPORT THE AMPLE
MOISTURE WE'VE BEEN NEEDING. THE ISSUE IS, BEING SO FAR OUT AND TOO
MUCH CAN CHANGE THAT WOULD RUIN THE SETUP. WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, AND THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LEFT OVER, BUT THEN ON THURSDAY WE
SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING AS HEIGHTS INCREASE DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE WEST.
WEBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING A LOW CLOUD DECK WAS SEEN ON SATELLITE
CREATING MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CIGS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM THE CAMS HAVE THIS DECK BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR BY AROUND 14
TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKING TO FOLLOW IN
THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY KAMA HAS THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WITH EARLIEST START TIME
BEING AROUND 23 TO 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGER HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. KDHT AND KGUY MAY SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOLLOW
LATER THAT NIGHT AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH
CHANCES OF SEVERE BEING EVEN LOWER.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11
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