898
FXUS64 KAMA 221826
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (15%) FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SATURDAY FURTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOW CHANCES FOR EVEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO MEDIUM MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED A SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS SHIFTING
TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A MORE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A SUBTLE WAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW
AND THE SUBTLE WAVE WILL BE THE KEY FEATURES THAT DICTATE THE HOW
THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS UNFOLD FOR THE
PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL SEPARATE THE
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND MORE CONDITIONAL
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS NORTH. THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE INSTABILITY RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE
WHICH WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INSTABILITY WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH IT
FORMING LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SHEAR IN BOTH
SECTORS REMAINS MODEST AT 20 TO 40 KT WITH THE SHEAR BEING
STRONGER TOWARDS THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
FORCING THE SUBTLE WAVE WILL CREATE FORCING MAINLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY SEE THE MAIN
WEATHER SYSTEM CLIP IT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING
STRONGER FORCING. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PANHANDLES WITH THEM OCCURRING EARLIER FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES AND LATER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS EARLY AS 4 TO 5 PM
BUT MORE LIKELY FROM 6 TO 11 PM. THE NORTHERN STORM TIMING WILL
BE LATER STARTING AS EARLY AS 7 TO 8 PM WITH MOST LIKELY 10 PM TO
4 AM. THE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
WOULD NORMALLY YIELD MORE AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
THE AMOUNT OF FORCING IS IN QUESTION WITH A STRONGER WAVE BEING
ABLE TO PROVIDE FOR MORE FORCING AND THUS GREATER ACTIVITY.
CONVERSELY A WEAK WAVE WOULD LEAD TO LESS FORCING AND LESS
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. NOW A WILD CARD THAT HAS SHOWN ON THE 18Z
SOUNDING IS THAT THERE IS A STRONGER THAN FORECASTED CAP OVER THE
PANHANDLES. IF THIS CAP HOLD STRONG IT CAN HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT
FOR ALL THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY MODE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES IS THAT OF MULTICELLS TO
LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE WAVE IS POTENT ENOUGH THEN SUPERCELL
COULD ALSO OCCUR, BUT THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS. IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE STORMS ALSO FAVOR MORE
LINEAR CONVECTION BUT MULTICELLS CAN OCCUR. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS BETTER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCATED. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
(15%) FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE
THREATS REMAIN THE SAME AT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT THE
CHANCES DROP TO LOW (5%). A FURTHER THREAT FROM ALL THE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL BE HIGHER THE STRONGER A STORM
BECOMES. THIS CAN BE AN ISSUE ON THE MANY RECENT BURN SCARS WHICH
ARE MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. ONCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORMS END
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT A LOW BANK OF CLOUDS CAN SETTLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO
ANY OVERNIGHT FOG OR DRIZZLE.
SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE WHOLE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM EJECTS TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING NEEDED TO SPAWN RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE BECOMING LESS UNSTABLE AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BE DEPARTING. THIS WOULD BRING A MORE MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE TO THE PANHANDLES. THE SHEAR LIKEWISE WILL
SEE A DOWNTREND TO 15 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. OVERALL THIS
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS SETUP WOULD MOST LIKELY START
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NM TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE EARLIEST TIME FOR START IS AROUND 4 TO 5 PM WITH
STORMS BEING MOST LIKELY 7 PM TO 1 AM. ONCE THE STORMS GET GOING
THEY WOULD GENERALLY PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS LESS CAPABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS
IT WILL STILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE (5%) OF SPAWNING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK TO THE
FRESH BURN SCARS. THIS CAN BE MOST TROUBLESOME FOR THE BURN SCARS
IN RANDALL AND POTTER COUNTIES AS THE CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL
FAVORS THIS REGION FOR HEAVIER RAIN. THIS THREAT WILL COME TO AN
END GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS AND
THE THUNDERSTORMS FULLY COME TO AN END.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF A DIRTY RIDGE SITTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING A DOWN TICK IN THE IN
THE DAILY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STILL THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FORM AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE TO ARRIVE IN
THE GREAT PLAINS FOR MID NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY FAVORING
HIGHER PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DOWN TICK IN ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BRINGING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTING ALL THE TERMINALS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOONER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES AND
LATER IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THE MORE NORTHERN STORMS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A LOW CLOUD BANK TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. THE CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED
WITHIN THE TAFS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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