122
FXUS64 KAMA 230509
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SEVERE POTENTIAL (5%) WILL EXIST FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
-THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
COMING PERIOD. THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM
DAY TO DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THIS PAST EVENING, MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER PERFORMED A BIT
ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED STORMS BECOME SEVERE WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. GOING INTO TODAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
PROGGED TO COME ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AIDING IN
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON THE RECOVERY OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND HOW LONG SHOWERY
TYPE ACTIVITY LAST THIS MORNING. ALSO, SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN
TX PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
COOLER WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPING EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY HINDER SURFACE BASED CAPE AND
ELIMINATE SOME OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, MLCAPE WILL STILL
BE UP NEAR 300 TO 500 J/KG AND MAY SEE A BRIEF MOMENT WHERE
STORMS TAP INTO SURFACE BASED CAPE (1500 J/KG) BEFORE TOTALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LINEAR WITH
A LINE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FIRST. THIS LINE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE SOUTH, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE OF A COMPLEX AS IT GETS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE.
OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOOKING TO REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ESPECIALLY INITIALLY WHERE STORMS COULD BE MORE
DISCRETE FURTHER WEST IN NE NM. OR IF STORMS CAN INITIATE OFF OF A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS. ONCE THE STORMS CAN BECOME OUTFLOW
DOMINATE THE THREAT FOR WIND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND ONCE
STORMS BECOME ELEVATED, MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
HAIL AS SHEAR WILL BE DROPPING FURTHER EAST INTO THE AREA. ONCE
THE COMPLEX FORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL
RAINFALL RATES AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AT THIS
TIME, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT EITHER.
FOR SUNDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS PROGGED TO RETURN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT ON SUNDAY AGAIN. THIS TIME AROUND 20 TO
MAYBE 40 POPS IN THE WEST. THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE
BEST H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND STORMS MAY ONLY GET GOING IF A
PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT CAN HELP INITIATE THE STORMS.
THEREFORE, STORMS ARE DEPENDENT ON A DIRTY RIDGE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STICKS AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. POPS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 30 IN THE
WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING H5 TROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES,
LOOKING AT 20 POPS IN THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES TO 50 POPS
IN THE WEST GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT
IN THAT GOOD OF AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
A FAIRLY ROBUST MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND
DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN COASTAL STATES TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO HELP SEND MORE RIPPLES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT OURS. CURRENT NBM POPS STAND AROUND 60 TO 80
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH GETTING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR, CANNOT RULE
OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO FULLY ASSESS THE
EXTENT OF SEVERITY AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. CURRENT NBM POPS IN THE EXTENDED BEYOND TUE ARE AROUND 20
TO 30 WITH MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AFFECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES A LITTLE BIT LONGER. MAINLY IMPACTING
KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA IS LIKELY DONE SEEING STORMS FOR NOW.
HOWEVER, KAMA WILL POTENTIALLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT A MINIMUM
MOVE IN LATER AFTER 11Z. THE EXTENT OF THESE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. OR IF THEY
CAN POSSIBLY REDUCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD AFTER 21Z AND LAST PAST 00Z SUNDAY
FOR THE PANHANDLES. FIRST IMPACTING KDHT THEN KGUY AND EVENTUALLY
KAMA.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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