711
FXUS64 KAMA 231721
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.
-DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK,
WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUITE
QUICKLY WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE ALREADY
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. THIS
CHANGE DOES LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING LATER ON
TODAY AND POTENTIALLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EVEN
THOUGH THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ONCE AGAIN TODAY, HIGHER
INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A RESULT OF THE GOOD SURFACE TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE HIGHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST SUITE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS
TREND BY SHOWCASING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES
BY THAT TIME MAY BE INCREASING UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-30 KTS MAY LEAD TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AS EARLY AS 3-5 PM. DAMAGING HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS AND GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY, BRIEF INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES TO POTENTIALLY 2.5
INCHES (TENNIS BALL) CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MORE LIKELY MAX HAIL
SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE 1.75 (GOLF BALL) TO 2 INCH, BUT IF THE INITIAL
UPDRAFTS STRENGTHEN ENOUGH, THE LARGER HAIL THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE
FOR A SHORT TIME. ANY OUTFLOW THAT STORMS PRODUCE COULD ALSO LEAD TO
A LOWER END SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT (60-65 MPH WIND GUSTS).
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM AND
MOVE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS WEST TX. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES, THEY
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COULD ALSO POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THIS ANTICIPATED LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ENDING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL WAA
SHOULD LEAD TO H850 TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW MORE DEGREES DURING
PEAK HEATING. SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING 90. SYNOPTIC FORCING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GOOD ON SUNDAY BUT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACHIEVED SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE LACK OF FORCING LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OR ANY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM, THEY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE EVENING AFTER DAY TIME HEATING IS LOST.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK, THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL
KEEP GULF OF AMERICA MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY. ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT AT THIS TIME LOOKS
TOO LOW TO MENTION, BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
AND INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE WEEK STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN US ALL THE WAY TO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CANADA. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MAY EVEN BE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THANKFULLY FOR US THIS FAR SOUTH, THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED TOO MUCH BY THIS RIDGE DUE TO THE HIGH BEING SO FAR
NORTH, SO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 80S NEXT WEEK.
AN H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DIG SOUTH MID WEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM
MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLES.
TIMING OF THOSE WAVES ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS BEING ABLE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR KAMA FROM AROUND 23Z THROUGH
ABOUT 02-03Z FOR TSRA POTENTIAL WHERE ERRATIC WINDS FROM TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, OVERALL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29
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