930
FXUS64 KAMA 240458
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
FAVORING THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.
- TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
- AFTER TUESDAY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT A 20 TO MAYBE 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DESPITE A DECENT AMOUNT OF H7 THETA-E ADVECTION, UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE LACKING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH ANY
ACTIVITY WANING TOWARDS SUNSET. ALSO, LACK OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW
ANY STORMS TO COLLAPSE ON THEMSELVES AND NOT BE VERY LONG LIVED
AND POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MONDAY, IS EXPECTED TO
BE A REPEAT OF ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BRING SOME LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. IT WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR POPS UPWARDS OF 80
PERCENT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER,
FIRST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD BACK IN THE 70S TO THE WEST AND LOWER TO
MID 80S IN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME TOO, A
FAIRLY STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE PACNW.
THIS LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE DOWN OVER CA/NV AND KEEP RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY
BEYOND TUE IS LOOKING TO HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THEN WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
CLOSER TO 15 KTS. AFTER 18Z, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR KAMA AND KDHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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